关键词: 气候变化, 区域气候模式, PRECIS, CO₂

Abstract: A regional climate model (PRECIS), developed by the UK' Hadley Center for Climate Prediction and Research, was used to simulate the climate in the Changjiang-Huaihe River valley. PRECIS'capacity for simulating present climate over the valley was firstly validated by comparing the simulations of temperature and precipitation with the observations during 1961-1990; the model was then used to project the climate change over 2071-2100 in the valley. The results give a regional annual average surface warming of 2.9℃ and a somewhat increase in precipitation under the SRES B2 emission scenario by the end of the 21st century (2071-2100). The results also present more extremely high temperature events during summer and fewer extremely cold events during winter. The number of days with heavy rain (especially above 120 mm/d) will be likely to increase.

Key words: climate change, regional climate model, PRECIS, CO₂, projection