气候变化研究进展 ›› 2008, Vol. 4 ›› Issue (006): 352-356.

• 研究短论 • 上一篇    下一篇

未来我国南方低温雨雪冰冻灾害变化的数值模拟

宋瑞艳 高学杰 石英 张冬峰 张喜娃   

  1. 中国气象科学研究院 中国气象局 国家气候中心 山西省气象台
  • 收稿日期:2008-04-23 修回日期:2008-05-19 出版日期:2008-11-30 发布日期:2008-11-30
  • 通讯作者: 宋瑞艳

Simulation of Changes in Cold Events in Southern China Under Global Warming

Song Ruiyan Gao Xuejie   

  1. Chinese Academy of Meteorological Science National Climate Center
  • Received:2008-04-23 Revised:2008-05-19 Online:2008-11-30 Published:2008-11-30
  • Contact: Song Ruiyan

摘要: 使用高分辨率区域气候模式(RegCM3),单向嵌套一个全球模式,对未来我国南方冰雪灾害在IPCC SRES A2情景下的变化进行了数值模拟。结果表明:未来南方地区低温日数整体将减少,但在广东和广西北部部分地区连续低温日数有增加现象;降雪日数和连续降雪日数会减少,但在江西等地降雪量将有所增加,同时强降雪事件在江西等地将增多,引起地面最大积雪深度和最大持续积雪日数的增加;湖南和贵州东部地区冻雨日数会减少,而在青藏高原东麓等地冻雨日数会增加。

关键词: 区域气候模式, 冷事件, 中国南方

Abstract: Multi-decadal climate change simulations have been conducted over China using a regional climate model (the ICTP RegCM3) under the IPCC SRES A2 emission scenario. This paper focuses on future changes in cold events in southern China. The results show that the climate warming will lead to generally less cold days over the study region, but slightly increased consecutive cold days in some local areas of northern parts of Guangdong and Guangxi; and to less snow days and consecutive snow days, but increased intensity of snow events and consequently wider snow coverage over Jiangxi Province and parts of other southern provinces. The day number of ice rain will decrease in Hunan Province and the eastern part of Guizhou Province, while increase around the eastern edge of the Tibetan Plateau.

Key words: regional climate model, cold and snow events, southern China

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