健康膳食对农业甲烷排放的影响分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.071

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

基于清单法计算了1981—2060年中国农业源CH₄排放量，基于情景设计分析了5种健康膳食结构的农业源CH₄减排效应。研究表明：1981—2021年中国农业源CH₄排放从18.46 Mt上升至22.23 Mt，其中肠道发酵、水稻种植和淡水养殖是CH₄排放的主要来源。基准情景下，中国农业源CH₄排放于2036年达到峰值24.91 Mt，2022—2060年累积排放940.40 Mt。5种健康膳食情景将促进全国CH₄提前到2030年之前（2021—2027年）达峰，2022—2060年累积减排170.22~343.31 Mt（18%~37%）CH₄，其中动物性食物消费相对较少的健康膳食情景CH₄减排潜力更大。

关键词: 农业, CH₄, 排放路径, 情景预测, 减排潜力

Abstract:

Based on the inventory method, the agricultural CH₄ emissions in China from 1981 to 2060 were calculated, and the agricultural CH₄ emission reduction effects of five healthy dietary patterns were analyzed based on scenario design. Results show that CH₄ emissions from agriculture in China increased from 18.46 Mt to 22.23 Mt from 1981 to 2021, with enteric fermentation, rice cultivation and freshwater aquaculture being the main sources of CH₄ emissions. Under the baseline scenario, China’s agricultural CH₄ emissions will reach a peak of 24.91 Mt in 2036, and the cumulative emissions from 2022 to 2060 are 940.40 Mt. The five healthy dietary scenarios will promote the early peak of CH₄ in China before 2030 (2021-2027), and the cumulative emission reduction potential from 2022 to 2060 is 170.22-343.31 Mt (18%-37%) CH₄. Among them, the healthy dietary scenario with relatively less consumption of animal sources food has greater CH₄ emission reduction potential.

Key words: Agriculture, Methane, Emission path, Scenario prediction, Mitigation potential

华而实, 陈敏鹏, 崔焱绒. 健康膳食对农业甲烷排放的影响分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(5): 559-572.

HUA Er-Shi, CHEN Min-Peng, CUI Yan-Rong. Analysis of the impact of healthy diet on agricultural methane emissions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 559-572.

图/表 7

图1 BAU情景设计

Fig. 1 Basic assumptions of BAU scenario

图2 BAU情景下部分农产品产量注：1981—2021年的农产品产量为历史实际数据；GLOBIOM-China模型的预测结果分别为2020、2030、2040和2050年；图(l)仅包含人工淡水养殖产量；Zhao等[45]并未预测水产品产量，因此图(l)中无对比。

Fig. 2 Production of some agricultural products of BAU scenario

表1 中国实际饮食状况（2020年）与5种健康膳食情景

Table 1 The actual dietary structure (2020) in China and five healthy dietary structures

图3 中国农业源CH4排放路径及其核密度分析

Fig. 3 Analysis of methane emission paths and nuclear density in Chinese agriculture

图4 中国农业源CH4排放占农业源非二氧化碳温室气体排放之比

Fig. 4 The proportion of CH4 emissions to non-CO2 greenhouse gas emissions from agriculture in China

图5 中国农业源CH4分部门排放路径及其核密度分析

Fig. 5 Analysis of the emission paths and nuclear density of methane in Chinese agricultural sectors

图6 中国农业分部门CH4减排潜力与排放结构

Fig. 6 Methane emission reduction potential and emission structure in Chinese agricultural sectors

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