气候变化研究进展 ›› 2016, Vol. 12 ›› Issue (2): 147-153.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.148

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

定量评估极端天气影响农业总产值的方法

郁珍艳1,李正泉1,高大伟1,张育慧2   

  1. 1. 浙江省气候中心
    2. 金华市气象局
  • 收稿日期:2015-08-13 修回日期:2015-09-09 出版日期:2016-03-30 发布日期:2016-03-31
  • 通讯作者: 郁珍艳 E-mail:yuzhenyan@126.com
  • 基金资助:

    浙江省自然科学基金;中国气象局气候变化专项

A Method of Evaluate the Impacts of Extreme Weather on Agricultural Economic Output Quantitatively

Yu Zhenyan1, Li Zhengquan1, Gao Dawei1, Zhang Yuhui2   

  1. 1 Zhejiang Climate Center, Hangzhou 310017, China;
    2 Jinhua Meteorological Bureau, Jinhua 321000, China
  • Received:2015-08-13 Revised:2015-09-09 Online:2016-03-30 Published:2016-03-31
  • Contact: Zhen-Yan Yu E-mail:yuzhenyan@126.com

摘要:

选取对极端天气敏感性和脆弱性较高的农业领域为研究对象,将极端天气因子和农业生产因子引入Cobb-Douglas生产函数,构建气候经济模型,定量分析了极端天气事件对浙江省农业总产值的影响。结果表明:极端天气因子与浙江省农业总产值存在长期均衡关系,对农业总产值有显著的负面影响。高温日数、低温日数、强降水日数每增加1%,浙江农业总产值分别减少0.072%、0.046%、0.076%;高温日数和强降水日数的短期波动对农业总产值也有显著的负面影响;不同区域的农业总产值受极端天气影响程度存在差异,浙江西北地区和西南地区相对东部沿海地区受极端天气影响更为严重。

关键词: 极端天气, 农业总产值, 产出弹性, 长期均衡, 短期波动, Cobb-Douglas生产函数

Abstract:

With high sensitivity and vulnerability to extreme weather, the agricultural field is chosen as the research object in this paper. By introducing the extreme weather factors and agricultural factors into the Cobb-Douglas production function, an economic climate model is developed and the effect of extreme weather events on agricultural production in Zhejiang Province is analyzed quantitatively. The results show that there is a long-term close equilibrium relationship between extreme weather events and agricultural production, and extreme weather has a significant negative impact on agricultural production. With each 1% increases of the high temperature days, the low temperature days, the heavy rain days resulted in the agricultural production decrease with 0.072%, 0.046%, 0.076% respectively. In addition, the short-term fluctuations of the high temperature days and the heavy rain days have significant negative impact on agricultural production, the extent of the influence by extreme weather on agricultural production manifests differences in different regions. Compared with the eastern coastal areas, northwest and southwest of Zhejiang Province are affected by extreme weather more seriously.

Key words: extreme weather, agricultural production, output elasticity, long-term equilibrium, short-term fluctuations, Cobb-Douglas production function

中图分类号: 

京ICP备11008704号-4
版权所有 © 《气候变化研究进展》编辑部
地址:北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 邮编:100081 电话/传真:(010)58995171 E-mail:accr@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn