G7国家固体废弃物处理领域甲烷排放驱动力分析

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.090

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

甲烷控排是有效减缓全球温升效应的重要举措，已引起国内外广泛关注。文中基于EDGAR数据库，采用脱钩指数和对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）分解法对G7国家固体废弃物（以下简称固废）处理领域甲烷排放与经济发展之间的关系进行量化分析。研究发现，G7国家固废甲烷排放均已出现峰值，美国、加拿大、法国、德国、英国和日本达峰时人均GDP集中在3万~4万美元，意大利人均GDP刚超过2万美元，各国排放均未与经济发展实现绝对脱钩。以人口、人均GDP、固废产生强度、甲烷排放系数为驱动力进行结构分解，结果表明，人口和人均GDP的增长持续驱动G7各国固废处理甲烷排放量攀升，但驱动力随发展速度下降而显著减弱。甲烷排放系数的降低是实现控排的最主要因素，固废产生强度下降在大部分时期同样能够抑制甲烷排放增加。通过不断强化垃圾分类回收、推动填埋场甲烷收集利用，甲烷排放系数有望持续降低。结合G7国家采取的主要控排政策与行动，为助力中国在固废领域甲烷控排，提出了制定减排战略、控制固废产生强度、减少进入填埋场的有机物、强力推进填埋气回收利用或是销毁等建议。

关键词: 甲烷, 固体废弃物处理, 脱钩指数, 对数平均迪氏指数（LMDI）, 驱动力分析

Abstract:

Methane emission control and reduction is considered as one of the important measures for effectively mitigating global warming effect, which has attracted widespread attention both domestically and internationally. In this paper, based on the EDGAR database, the decoupling index and Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI) decomposition method were used to quantitatively analyze the relationship between methane emissions from solid waste treatment and economic development in G7 countries. It is found that methane emissions from solid waste treatment in G7 countries have already peaked, with the per capita GDP of the US, Canada, France, Germany, the UK and Japan being concentrated in the range of 30000-40000 US dollars when reaching the peak, and Italy’s per capita GDP just exceeded 20000 US dollars. No country has achieved absolute decoupling between emissions and economic development. As for the structural decomposition results driven by population, per capita GDP, solid waste generation intensity, and methane emission coefficient, the growth of population and per capita GDP sustainably drives the increase in methane emissions from solid waste treatment in G7 countries, but the driving force significantly weakens as the development speed slows down. The reduction of methane emission coefficient is the most important factor in achieving methane control, and the decrease in solid waste generation intensity can also suppress the increase in methane emissions in most periods. By continuously strengthening solid waste classification and recycling and promoting methane collection and utilization in landfills, methane emission coefficient is expected to continue to decline. Combining with the main methane control policies and actions taken by G7 countries, some suggestions are proposed to help China achieve methane control in the field of solid waste treatment, including formulating emission reduction strategies, controlling the intensity of solid waste generation, reducing organic matter entering landfills, and strongly promoting landfill gas recovery and utilization or disposal.

Key words: Methane, Solid waste treatment, Decoupling index, Logarithmic Mean Divisia Index (LMDI), Driving force analysis

杨儒浦, 冯相昭, 王敏, 李丽平. G7国家固体废弃物处理领域甲烷排放驱动力分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(5): 573-581.

YANG Ru-Pu, FENG Xiang-Zhao, WANG Min, LI Li-Ping. Analysis on the driving forces of methane emissions from solid waste treatment in G7 countries[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 573-581.

图/表 6

图1 1970—2021年全球甲烷排放变化注：图中数字为年均增速。

Fig. 1 Changes in global methane emissions from 1970 to 2021

图2 1970—2021年G7国家固废处理甲烷排放趋势

Fig. 2 Trends in methane emissions from solid waste treatment in G7 countries in 1970-2021

表1 G7国家固废处理甲烷排放达峰情况

Table 1 The peaking information of methane emissions from solid waste treatment in G7 countries

表2 G7国家和中国固废处理领域甲烷控排相关政策和措施[8]

Table 2 Methane reduction policies and measures from solid waste treatment in G7 countries and China[8]

图3 G7国家固废处理甲烷排放与经济发展脱钩情况

Fig. 3 The decoupling status between methane emissions from solid waste treatment and economic development in G7 countries

图4 LMDI分解结果注：加拿大1991—2000年固废产生量数据缺失。

Fig. 4 The results of LMDI decomposition

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