气候变化研究进展 ›› 2023, Vol. 19 ›› Issue (5): 559-572.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2023.071
收稿日期:
2023-04-07
修回日期:
2023-06-02
出版日期:
2023-09-30
发布日期:
2023-09-28
通讯作者:
陈敏鹏,女,教授,作者简介:
华而实,男,硕士研究生
基金资助:
HUA Er-Shi, CHEN Min-Peng(), CUI Yan-Rong
Received:
2023-04-07
Revised:
2023-06-02
Online:
2023-09-30
Published:
2023-09-28
摘要:
基于清单法计算了1981—2060年中国农业源CH4排放量,基于情景设计分析了5种健康膳食结构的农业源CH4减排效应。研究表明:1981—2021年中国农业源CH4排放从18.46 Mt上升至22.23 Mt,其中肠道发酵、水稻种植和淡水养殖是CH4排放的主要来源。基准情景下,中国农业源CH4排放于2036年达到峰值24.91 Mt,2022—2060年累积排放940.40 Mt。5种健康膳食情景将促进全国CH4提前到2030年之前(2021—2027年)达峰,2022—2060年累积减排170.22~343.31 Mt(18%~37%)CH4,其中动物性食物消费相对较少的健康膳食情景CH4减排潜力更大。
华而实, 陈敏鹏, 崔焱绒. 健康膳食对农业甲烷排放的影响分析[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(5): 559-572.
HUA Er-Shi, CHEN Min-Peng, CUI Yan-Rong. Analysis of the impact of healthy diet on agricultural methane emissions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(5): 559-572.
图2 BAU情景下部分农产品产量 注:1981—2021年的农产品产量为历史实际数据;GLOBIOM-China模型的预测结果分别为2020、2030、2040和2050年;图(l)仅包含人工淡水养殖产量;Zhao等[45]并未预测水产品产量,因此图(l)中无对比。
Fig. 2 Production of some agricultural products of BAU scenario
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