双碳目标下建立碳排放总量控制制度的思考与展望

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.218

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

中国在碳达峰碳中和的“1+N”政策体系中提出要将能耗双控过渡到碳排放双控，建立碳排放总量控制制度。已有研究大多关注目标制定、碳排放分配的方法学，或以制度体系设计为对象进行分析，缺乏对分解模式、不同责任主体协同、责任主体与排放源匹配等制度关键问题的讨论。文中从制度实施角度着眼，梳理国内外控制碳排放的相关制度实践，提出构建碳排放总量控制制度的“目标分解→出台政策→实施行动→评估调整”全流程管理和要素，并提出各个环节的具体建议：(1)目标分解采用“区域和行业分解相结合”的模式，将发电等纳入碳市场行业的重点排放单位按行业分解和管控，其他排放源（包括一般排放企业、建筑、交通等）按区域分解和管控；(2)政策工具要匹配责任主体的管理模式和排放源的减排重点，发挥不同责任主体间的协同作用，避免重复管理；(3)要建设相应的数据核算和支撑体系，并形成评估反馈和调整机制。

关键词: 碳排放, 总量控制, 目标分解, 碳达峰碳中和

Abstract:

The carbon peaking and carbon neutrality “1+N” policy system of China proposes to transition from dual control of energy consumption to dual control of carbon emissions, and establish a total carbon emission control system. Most of the existing studies focus on the methodology of total emission target setting and carbon emission allocation, or the analysis of the object of the system, but lacking the discussion on the key issues of the system, such as the decomposition mode, the coordination of different responsibility subjects, and the matching of responsibility subjects and emission sources. From the perspective of system implementation, this paper arranges the relevant institutional practices of carbon emission control at domestic and abroad, proposes the whole process management and elements of the total carbon emission control system “target decomposition → policy introduction → action implementation → assessment and adjustment”, and puts forward specific suggestions for each process. First, target decomposition adopts the mode of “combining regional and industrial decomposition”. The key emission units such as power generation included in the carbon market industry are decomposed and controlled by industry, and other emission sources (including general emission enterprises, buildings, transportation, etc.) are decomposed and controlled by region. Second, the policy tools should match the management mode of the responsible subjects and the emission reduction priorities of the emission sources, which can give play to the synergy between different responsible subjects, and avoid duplication of management. Third, we should build a corresponding data accounting and support system, and form an evaluation, feedback and adjustment mechanism.

Key words: Carbon emission, Total emission control, Target decomposition, Carbon peaking and carbon neutrality

杨姗姗, 郭豪, 杨秀, 李政. 双碳目标下建立碳排放总量控制制度的思考与展望[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(2): 191-202.

YANG Shan-Shan, GUO Hao, YANG Xiu, LI Zheng. Consideration and prospect of total carbon emission control system under the double carbon target[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(2): 191-202.

图/表 8

图1 欧盟总量控制落实机制及目标分解方案注：根据欧盟能源与气候变化有关政策和相关文献整理。

Fig. 1 Implementation mechanism and target allocation scheme of EU total emission control

图2 成员国在减排责任分担机制下的减排目标注：根据欧盟能源与气候变化有关政策整理；正值表示增排，负值表示减排。

Fig. 2 Emission reduction targets of member states under the emission reduction responsibility sharing mechanism

图3 英国碳预算相关工作机制注：根据英国碳预算有关政策和相关文献整理。

Fig. 3 Institutional arrangement under UK carbon budget

表1 德国温室气体总量目标分解

Table 1 The allocation of Germany’s GHG emission reduction targets

表2 中国控制温室气体排放量化目标

Table 2 Quantitative objectives for controlling greenhouse gas emissions in China

图4 碳排放总量控制的全过程管理和要素

Fig. 4 Whole process management and elements of total carbon emission control

表3 4种目标分解模式的内涵与分析

Table 3 Connotation and analysis of four target decomposition modes

图5 “责任主体-排放源”匹配的政策工具梳理

Fig. 5 The sorting of the policy tools matching “responsible subjects-emission sources”

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