绿色金融改革创新试验区政策对碳排放的影响评估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.069

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

绿色金融改革创新试验区政策是地方落实碳达峰碳中和的重要手段，但已有研究对该政策的碳减排效果关注较少。基于此，文中选取2013—2020年中国省级面板数据，采用双重差分模型分析试验区政策对碳排放强度的影响，并进一步采用中介效应模型探究试验区政策影响碳排放强度的作用路径，采用调节效应模型考察金融发展水平的调节作用。研究结果表明：试验区政策的实施显著降低了试点地区的碳排放强度，且金融发展水平对试验区政策的碳减排效果起到了正向调节作用。从作用路径来看，试验区政策主要通过优化产业结构促进碳减排，而技术创新的中介效应尚未得到验证。因此，未来应从深化拓展试验区工作、持续推进产业结构优化、加大技术创新政策力度并根据金融发展水平制定具有区域特色的绿色金融政策等方面推动绿色金融发展。

关键词: 绿色金融改革创新试验区, 双重差分模型, 碳排放强度, 气候变化, 中介效应, 调节效应

Abstract:

The “Pilot Zones for Green Finance Reform and Innovations” policy is an important tool for local government achieving carbon dioxide peaking and carbon neutrality goal. However, less attention has been paid to the carbon emission reduction effect on the pilot zone policy. Therefore, with the panel data of provincial-level administrative regions from 2013 to 2020, the difference-in-difference model (DID) was first used to analyze the impact of the pilot zone policy on carbon emission intensity, and then, the impact mechanism was examined using the mediating model. Besides, the influence of financial development level on the carbon emission reduction effect of the policy was investigated using the moderating effect model. The results show that the implementation of the pilot zone policy reduces the carbon emission intensity of the pilot area significantly, and the financial development level has a positive moderating effect on the carbon reduction effect of the policy. From the perspective of mechanism, the policy mainly promotes carbon emission reduction by optimizing the industrial structure, while the mediating path of technological innovation has not been verified. Therefore, this study recommends deepening and expanding the pilot policy, optimizing industrial structure, strengthening the support for technological innovation, and formulating green finance policies according to the level of financial development of different areas in the near future.

Key words: Pilot Zones for Green Finance Reform and Innovations, Difference-in-difference model, Carbon emission-intensity, Climate change, Mediation effect, Moderating effect

谭显春, 高瑾昕, 曾桉, 幸绣程. 绿色金融改革创新试验区政策对碳排放的影响评估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2023, 19(2): 213-226.

TAN Xian-Chun, GAO Jin-Xin, ZENG An, XING Xiu-Cheng. Impact of the “Pilot Zones for Green Finance Reform and Innovations” policy on carbon emissions[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(2): 213-226.

图/表 11

图1 试验区政策对碳排放影响的作用机制

Fig. 1 Impact mechanisms of the pilot zone policy on carbon emissions

图2 双重差分模型原理图

Fig. 2 Principle of difference-in-difference model

表1 主要变量定义与说明

Table 1 Definition and description of primary variables

表2 产业结构优化指标构建

Table 2 Index construction of industrial structure optimization

表3 数据的描述性统计

Table 3 Descriptive summary

图3 试点地区和非试点地区碳排放强度变化注：辅助线为对照组平均碳排放强度向下平移所得。

Fig. 3 Changes of carbon emission intensity in pilot and non-pilot areas

表4 基准回归、中介效应及调节效应回归结果

Table 4 Results of baseline regression, mechanism analysis and moderating effects

图4 平行趋势检验及动态效应分析注：图中各垂直竖线代表95%的信度区间。

Fig. 4 Test of parallel trend assumption and annual treatment effect

图5 稳健性检验结果注：水平虚线对应p=0.05，垂直虚线代表基准回归结果的系数，即-0.353。

Fig. 5 Robustness test result

表5 稳健性回归结果

Table 5 Robust regression results

表6 中介效应的Sobel检验结果

Table 6 Sobel test results for mechanism analysis

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