能源转型路径的经济环境健康效益评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.257

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (6): 777-790.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.257

能源转型路径的经济环境健康效益评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

林泽伟¹^,²^,³, 汪鹏¹^,²(), 任松彦¹^,²^,³, 许鸿伟⁴, 张聪¹^,²^,³^,⁵, 赵黛青¹^,²

1 中国科学院广州能源研究所，广州 510640
2 中国科学院可再生能源重点实验室，广州 510640
3 中国科学院大学，北京 100049
4 广东省环境科学研究院，广州 510045
5 中国科学技术大学工程科学学院，合肥 230027

收稿日期:2021-11-01 修回日期:2021-12-21 出版日期:2022-11-30 发布日期:2022-02-18
通讯作者: 汪鹏
作者简介:林泽伟，男，硕士研究生
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金“基于经济-技术-空间集成能源模型研究”(71603248);广东省科技计划项目“工业园区智慧能源管理系统关键技术研究”(2017A050501060)

Assessment of economic, environmental and health benefits of the energy transition path—take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example

LIN Ze-Wei¹^,²^,³, WANG Peng¹^,²(), REN Song-Yan¹^,²^,³, XU Hong-Wei⁴, ZHANG Cong¹^,²^,³^,⁵, ZHAO Dai-Qing¹^,²

1 Guangzhou Institute of Energy Conversion, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China
2 Key laboratory of Renewable Energy, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Guangzhou 510640, China
3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4 Guangdong Provincial Academy of Environmental Science, Guangzhou 510045, China
5 School of Engineering Science, University of Science and Technology of China, Hefei 230027, China

Received:2021-11-01 Revised:2021-12-21 Online:2022-11-30 Published:2022-02-18
Contact: WANG Peng

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

能源转型是推动“双碳”目标实现的关键举措，文中构建能源转型综合评价模型并以粤港澳大湾区为例，设计了基准情景、转型情景和深度转型情景，评估不同能源转型路径对大湾区经济产业、环境正外部性和健康效益的影响。结果显示，相比基准情景，能源清洁替代促进转型情景和深度转型情景的碳排放分别在2025年和2022年提前达峰，到2035年碳排放分别下降了22.0%和35.9%，转型情景电力结构优化促使碳排放减少了0.59亿t，占全社会减排量的53%；投资结构优化和产业转型升级推动转型情景2035年GDP相比基准情景增长0.68%，而深度转型情景碳限制过于严格，造成GDP损失0.34%；能源转型对环境产生正外部性，2035年转型情景SO₂、NO_X、PM2.5、PM10排放分别下降35%、20%、36%、37%，带来155.6亿元的环境健康效益，约占大湾区GDP的0.05%。综合考虑能源转型对全社会的经济、环境、健康影响，转型情景的经济性较好，2035年相对基准情景增加了0.73%的经济效益。粤港澳大湾区应合理设置碳减排目标，稳步推进能源转型，实现绿色能源转型和能源、经济、环境的协调发展。

关键词: 粤港澳大湾区, 能源转型, CGE模型, 经济影响, 健康影响

Abstract:

Energy transition is a key measure to promote the realization of the “Dual Carbon” goals. A comprehensive evaluation model was constructed for energy transition in Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA). Then the baseline scenario, the transition scenario and the deep transition scenario were designed to evaluate the impact of energy transition on the economy industry, environmental positive externality, and health benefit of the GBA. The results are as follows. (1) The clean replacement of energy will promote the carbon emission peak time of the transition scenario and the deep transition scenario to 2025 and 2022, respectively, and the carbon emissions are reduced by 22.0% and 35.9% respectively, compared with the 2035 baseline scenario. Among them, the clean replacement of electricity contributes to a reduction of 59 million tons of carbon emissions, accounting for 53% of the entire society’s emissions reductions. (2) The transition and upgrading of industries and the optimization of investment structure will promote a GDP growth of 0.68% in the transition scenario compared with the 2035 baseline scenario. However, in the deep transition scenario, the carbon restrictions are too strict, resulting in a GDP loss of 0.34%. (3) The energy transition has positive externalities to the environment. Compared with the baseline scenario, SO₂, NO_X, PM2.5, PM10 will be reduced by 35%, 20%, 36% and 37%, respectively in the transition scenario in 2035, bringing CNY 15.56 billion of health benefit, accounting for about 0.05% of the GDP of the GBA. Comprehensively considering the economic, environmental, health impact of the energy transition on the GBA, the economy of transition scenario is the best, and it will bring 0.73% of economic benefit in 2035. The GBA should set a reasonable carbon emission reduction target, steadily promote the process of energy transition, and achieve the green energy transition and the coordinated development of energy, economy and environment.

Key words: Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA), Energy transition, CGE model, Economic impact, Health impact

林泽伟, 汪鹏, 任松彦, 许鸿伟, 张聪, 赵黛青. 能源转型路径的经济环境健康效益评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(6): 777-790.

LIN Ze-Wei, WANG Peng, REN Song-Yan, XU Hong-Wei, ZHANG Cong, ZHAO Dai-Qing. Assessment of economic, environmental and health benefits of the energy transition path—take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 777-790.

图/表 16

图1 粤港澳大湾区区位示意图

Fig. 1 Location map of the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area (GBA)

图2 粤港澳大湾区能源转型综合评价模型框架图

Fig. 2 Framework of comprehensive evaluation model for energy transition in the GBA

表1 生产部门分类

Table 1 Production sector classification

表2 2019年全国与污染暴露相关疾病平均住院医疗费用

Table 2 Average hospitalization medical expenses for diseases related to pollution exposure in 2019 (China)

表3 情景设置

Table 3 Scenario settings

表4 粤港澳大湾区GDP、人口增速设定值

Table 4 GDP and population growth values of the GBA

图3 2017—2035年不同情景下粤港澳大湾区能源消费总量发展趋势

Fig. 3 Development trend of total energy consumption under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

图4 各情景下粤港澳大湾区一次能源结构

Fig. 4 Primary energy structure under different scenarios in the GBA

图5 2017—2035年各情景下粤港澳大湾区电价变化趋势

Fig. 5 Electricity price trends under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

图6 2017—2035年粤港澳大湾区各情景碳排放趋势

Fig. 6 Carbon emission trends under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

图7 2035年粤港澳大湾区各情景分行业碳排放

Fig. 7 Carbon emissions of various industries in the GBA under different scenarios in 2035

图8 2017—2035年粤港澳大湾区各情景污染物排放量

Fig. 8 Pollutant emissions under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035. (a) SO2, (b) NOX, (c) PM2.5, and (d) PM10

图9 2017—2035年粤港澳大湾区各情景PM2.5浓度

Fig. 9 PM2.5 concentration under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035

图10 2017—2035年转型情景、深度转型情景相比基准情景的GDP变化率

Fig. 10 The GDP change rate of transition scenario and deep transition scenario compared to the baseline scenario in the GBA during 2017-2035

表5 2025年和2035年各情景致病端的额外健康支出和死亡端的健康损失

Table 5 Additional health expenditure on the pathogenic side and health loss on the death side of each scenario in the GBA in 2025 and 2035

图11 2020—2035年转型情景、深度转型情景相比基准情景的经济、环境、健康效益

Fig. 11 Economic, environmental and health impacts of transition scenario and deep transition scenario compared to baseline scenario in the GBA during 2020-2035

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能源转型路径的经济环境健康效益评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例

Assessment of economic, environmental and health benefits of the energy transition path—take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example

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