气候变化研究进展

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全国碳市场引入CCER交易及抵销机制的经济影响研究

张宁,庞军   

  1. 中国人民大学环境学院,北京100872
  • 收稿日期:2022-03-21 修回日期:2022-05-08 出版日期:2022-06-23 发布日期:2022-06-23
  • 通讯作者: 庞军
  • 基金资助:
    中国人民大学科学研究基金(中央高校基本科研业务费专项资金资助)

The economic impacts of introducing CCER trading and offset mechanism into the national carbon market of China

ZHANG Ning, PANG Jun   

  1. School of Environment and Natural Resources, Renmin University of China, Beijing 100872, China
  • Received:2022-03-21 Revised:2022-05-08 Online:2022-06-23 Published:2022-06-23
  • Contact: Jun PANG

摘要: 基于中国风电及光伏国家核证自愿减排量(CCER)现状及发展趋势,针对CCER供给、抵销和价格形成等关键机制问题,运用电力部门细分的递推动态可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型,模拟了在取消电价补贴的背景下全国碳市场引入风电及光伏CCER交易及抵销机制的经济影响。研究发现:引入CCER交易及抵销机制会降低碳配额交易价格,并缓解取消电价补贴对风电和光伏电力的负面影响,但也会削弱全国碳市场的碳减排效果,且随着CCER供给总量增加这些作用更明显;全国碳市场引入CCER交易及抵销机制后,碳排放强度较高的控排行业将选择购买更多的CCER,其中火电行业是主要的CCER需求方;未来我国如果不放开CCER项目备案审批则风电行业将是主要受益方,而未来适度放开CCER项目备案审批则风电和光伏行业都将从中受益。因此,全国碳市场在引入CCER交易及抵销机制的同时需从紧设置初始碳配额发放量,并可考虑适时重启CCER项目备案审批工作以更好地促进风电和光伏电力的发展,但允许的CCER清缴比例上限应结合碳减排目标合理设定,以避免对全国碳市场产生较大冲击。

关键词: 全国碳市场, 国家核证自愿减排量(CCER), 风电, 光伏, 可计算一般均衡(CGE)模型, 经济影响

Abstract: Based on current situation and development trend of wind power and photovoltaics Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER) in China, a variety of policy scenarios were set up for CCER supply, offsetting and price formation and other key mechanisms. Under the background of the cancellation of wind power and photovoltaics price subsidies, a recursive dynamic Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model with distinguished disaggregation in the electric power sector was developed to simulate the economic impacts of introducing wind power and photovoltaic CCER trading and offsetting mechanisms in the national carbon market. The results show that the introduction of wind power and photovoltaic CCER trading and offsetting mechanisms will reduce the carbon quota price and is also beneficial to ease the negative impact of the cancellation of wind power and photovoltaics price subsidies on these two electric power sectors, but it will weaken the carbon emission reduction effect of the national carbon market, and the effects will be more obvious with the increase of the total supply of CCER. After the introduction of wind power and photovoltaic CCER trading and offsetting mechanisms, industries with higher carbon emission intensity will choose to purchase more CCER, among which the thermal power industry will be the main buyer of CCER. If the register and approval of CCER will not be restarted in the future, the wind power industry will be the main beneficiary. However, if the register and approval of CCER can be restarted and its supply continues to increase year by year, both wind power and photovoltaic industries will benefit. Therefore, the total amount of initial carbon quota setting needs to be moderately tight when introducing CCER trading and offsetting mechanisms into national carbon market, China can consider restarting register and approval of CCER projects in the near future, but the upper limit of the allowable CCER settlement ratio should be reasonably set in combination with carbon emission reduction targets in order to avoid a great negative impact on the carbon emission reduction effect of the national carbon market.

Key words: National carbon market, Chinese Certified Emission Reduction (CCER), Wind power, Photovoltaics, Computable General Equilibrium (CGE) model, Economic impacts

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