气候变化研究进展 ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (6): 777-790.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.257
林泽伟1,2,3, 汪鹏1,2(), 任松彦1,2,3, 许鸿伟4, 张聪1,2,3,5, 赵黛青1,2
收稿日期:
2021-11-01
修回日期:
2021-12-21
出版日期:
2022-11-30
发布日期:
2022-02-18
通讯作者:
汪鹏
作者简介:
林泽伟,男,硕士研究生
基金资助:
LIN Ze-Wei1,2,3, WANG Peng1,2(), REN Song-Yan1,2,3, XU Hong-Wei4, ZHANG Cong1,2,3,5, ZHAO Dai-Qing1,2
Received:
2021-11-01
Revised:
2021-12-21
Online:
2022-11-30
Published:
2022-02-18
Contact:
WANG Peng
摘要:
能源转型是推动“双碳”目标实现的关键举措,文中构建能源转型综合评价模型并以粤港澳大湾区为例,设计了基准情景、转型情景和深度转型情景,评估不同能源转型路径对大湾区经济产业、环境正外部性和健康效益的影响。结果显示,相比基准情景,能源清洁替代促进转型情景和深度转型情景的碳排放分别在2025年和2022年提前达峰,到2035年碳排放分别下降了22.0%和35.9%,转型情景电力结构优化促使碳排放减少了0.59亿t,占全社会减排量的53%;投资结构优化和产业转型升级推动转型情景2035年GDP相比基准情景增长0.68%,而深度转型情景碳限制过于严格,造成GDP损失0.34%;能源转型对环境产生正外部性,2035年转型情景SO2、NOX、PM2.5、PM10排放分别下降35%、20%、36%、37%,带来155.6亿元的环境健康效益,约占大湾区GDP的0.05%。综合考虑能源转型对全社会的经济、环境、健康影响,转型情景的经济性较好,2035年相对基准情景增加了0.73%的经济效益。粤港澳大湾区应合理设置碳减排目标,稳步推进能源转型,实现绿色能源转型和能源、经济、环境的协调发展。
林泽伟, 汪鹏, 任松彦, 许鸿伟, 张聪, 赵黛青. 能源转型路径的经济环境健康效益评估——以粤港澳大湾区为例[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2022, 18(6): 777-790.
LIN Ze-Wei, WANG Peng, REN Song-Yan, XU Hong-Wei, ZHANG Cong, ZHAO Dai-Qing. Assessment of economic, environmental and health benefits of the energy transition path—take the Guangdong-Hong Kong-Macao Greater Bay Area as an example[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(6): 777-790.
图8 2017—2035年粤港澳大湾区各情景污染物排放量
Fig. 8 Pollutant emissions under different scenarios in the GBA during 2017-2035. (a) SO2, (b) NOX, (c) PM2.5, and (d) PM10
图10 2017—2035年转型情景、深度转型情景相比基准情景的GDP变化率
Fig. 10 The GDP change rate of transition scenario and deep transition scenario compared to the baseline scenario in the GBA during 2017-2035
表5 2025年和2035年各情景致病端的额外健康支出和死亡端的健康损失
Table 5 Additional health expenditure on the pathogenic side and health loss on the death side of each scenario in the GBA in 2025 and 2035
图11 2020—2035年转型情景、深度转型情景相比基准情景的经济、环境、健康效益
Fig. 11 Economic, environmental and health impacts of transition scenario and deep transition scenario compared to baseline scenario in the GBA during 2020-2035
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