气候变化对长江上游径流影响预估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.168

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

利用第五次国际耦合模式比较计划(CMIP5)中5个气候模式在3种典型浓度路径(RCPs)下的预估结果驱动SWAT水文模型,预估了21世纪气候变化对长江上游年径流量、季节分配以及极端径流的影响。结果表明：预估的长江上游平均气温呈显著上升趋势,21世纪末较当前(1986—2005年)升高1.5~5.5℃,降水总体呈增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前气候平均值,21世纪末相对于当前增加5%~15%。流域内气候变化存在明显空间差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域气温升高和降水增加幅度均大于流域平均值。预估的长江上游年径流量及各月平均径流均有增加趋势,在21世纪30年代后高于当前多年平均值,21世纪中期增加4%~8%,21世纪末增加10%~15%。预估的径流年内分布的均匀性有所增加,但年际变化明显增大,极端旱涝事件的频率和强度明显增加。预估的各子流域径流变化对气候变化的响应也存在差异,金沙江和岷沱江流域年径流量、年际变化和年内分布变化小,对气候变化的响应表现为低敏感;嘉陵江流域、乌江流域和长江上游干流径流增加幅度大,同时极端丰枯出现的频率和程度增加显著,是气候变化响应的敏感区域。

关键词: 气候变化, 径流, 长江上游, SWAT模型

Abstract:

To assess the impacts of climate change on river runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin, the climate change and its impacts on spatial-temporal trend of annual, seasonality and extremes of runoff were examined using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, based on a subset of five global circulation models under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The projected average annual temperature presents a significant upward trend, with an increase of 1.5-5.5℃ by the end of the 21st century relative to the reference period 1986-2005, and the overall precipitation is projected to increase after 2030s, with an increase of 5%-15% by the end of the 21st century. There is considerable spatial variation in the projected changes in annual temperature and precipitation across the upper Yangtze River basin, with the upper sub-basins (Jinsha River and Mintuo River) having a generally warmer and wetter conditions comparing with the whole study area. Changes of climate will result in an increase in the simulated mean annual runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin after 2030s, with an increase of 4%-8% in middle of the 21st century, and 10%-15% increase by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, the intra-annual distribution of monthly runoff is simulated generally more uniform. However, the inter-annual variation of runoff is simulated to increase, which indicates more frequent and severe extreme flood and drought events. With respect to spatial differences in simulated runoff, the sub-basins of Jinsha River and Mintuo River show a relative small change in the annual water availability as well as the inter-annual and intra-annual variability, whereas the sub-basins of Jialing, Wujiang, and mainstream of the upper Yangtze River show a larger increase in water availability and hydrological extremes.

Key words: Climate change, Runoff, upper Yangtze River basin, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model

秦鹏程,刘敏,杜良敏,许红梅,刘绿柳,肖潺. 气候变化对长江上游径流影响预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 405-415.

Peng-Cheng QIN,Min LIU,Liang-Min DU,Hong-Mei XU,Lyu-Liu LIU,Chan XIAO. Climate change impacts on runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(4): 405-415.

图/表 8

图1 长江上游流域及控制性水文站

Fig. 1 Location of the upper Yangtze River basin and main hydrological stations

图2 各水文站率定期和验证期逐月模拟径流与还原径流的比较

Fig. 2 Comparison of monthly simulated and natural flow at each hydrological station during calibration and validation periods

表1 各水文站率定期和验证期径流模拟效果评价结果

Table 1 Evaluation indices in the calibration and validation periods for each hydrological station

图3 3种情景下预估的2006—2099年长江上游流域年平均气温和降水量变化趋势(a,b)和空间分布(c,d)

Fig. 3 Projected trends (a, b) and spatial patterns (c, d) in changes of annual temperature and annual precipitation over the upper Yangtze River basin for 2006-2099 based on 5 GCMs under 3 RCPs (relative to 1986-2005, the same below)

图4 不同情景下长江上游及各子流域年径流量变化趋势

Fig. 4 Projected changes in ensemble annual mean flow for each sub-basin of upper Yangtze River under 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

表2 3种情景下长江上游及各子流域年径流均值和方差变化百分率

Table 2 Projected percentage changes in ensemble annual mean flow and its standard deviation for each basin of upper Yangtze River under 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

图5 不同情景下长江上游各月径流占年径流百分比的变化

Fig. 5 Projected ensemble mean changes in proportion of monthly runoff in annual runoff for sub-basins of upper Yangtze Riverunder 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

图6 不同情景下长江上游各子流域汛期(a)、蓄水期(b)和枯水期(c)Q95枯水极值及Q5丰水极值相对变化

Fig. 6 Projected ensemble mean percentage changes in Q95 and Q5 flow for sub-basins of upper Yangtze River during flood season (a), storage season (b) and dry season (c) under 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

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