基于多区域投入产出模型中美贸易隐含能源、碳排放的测算

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.154

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

采用多区域投入产出模型（MRIO）,利用欧盟资助开发的世界投入产出表和环境账户数据,测算了1995—2009年中国与美国的增加值贸易规模及净值,在此基础上利用环境账户中的能源消耗和碳排放数据测算出中美外贸隐含能源和隐含碳排放总体水平及其行业结构。研究表明：1995—2009年,中国对美国的增加值出口保持持续增长的态势,尤其是在中国加入世界贸易组织（WTO）后,但随后受2008年全球经济危机的影响,中国增加值出口规模有所减小;相比于美国,中国单位增加值能耗和碳排放水平较高,从而导致较大规模的隐含能源和隐含碳出口,长期处于隐含能源和隐含碳净输出国地位,且净输出规模呈现出上升的趋势;从行业结构来看,电力、燃气及水的供应业等能源行业是中国出口隐含能源和隐含碳排放的主要行业来源。

关键词: 增加值贸易, 隐含能源, 隐含碳, 多区域投入产出模型（MRIO）

Abstract:

Based on the Multi-Regional Input-Output Model (MRIO), using the World Input-Output Tables (WIOT) and environmental account data developed by the EU, the scale and net value of the value-added trade between China and the U.S. from 1995 to 2009 were measured, and the environmental accounts were used. Energy consumption and carbon emissions data measure the overall level of Sino-U.S. foreign trade embodied energy and embodied carbon emissions and its industry structure. Results showed that China’s value-added exports to the U.S. continued to grow in 1995-2009, especially after China’s accession to the World Trade Organization (WTO), but then decreased due to the global economic crisis in 2008. In comparison with the U.S., China’s value-added energy consumption and carbon emission levels are relatively high, resulting in larger-scale embodied energy and embodied carbon exports, long-term net exporting country status of embodied energy and embodied carbon, and net output. The scale shows an upward trend. From the perspective of industry structure, the energy industry such as manufacturing and electricity, gas and water supply is the main source of China’s foreign trade embodied energy consumption and embodied carbon emissions.

Key words: Value-added trade, Embodied energy, Embodied carbon, Multi-Regional Input-Output Model (MRIO)

韩中,王刚. 基于多区域投入产出模型中美贸易隐含能源、碳排放的测算[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(4): 416-426.

Zhong HAN,Gang WANG. Estimation of embodied energy and carbon emissions in Sino-U.S. trade based on Multi-Region Input-Output Model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(4): 416-426.

图/表 10

表1 1995—2009年中国对美国增加值贸易、传统贸易进出口及其净值

Table 1 Import, export and its net value of China’s value-added trade, and traditional trade during 1995-2009

表2 1995—2009年中国与美国隐含能源和隐含碳贸易

Table 2 China and the U.S. implicit energy and hidden carbon trade during 1995-2009

图1 1995—2009年中国增加值出口

Fig. 1 China’s value-added exports during 1995-2009

图2 1995—2009年中国增加值进口

Fig. 2 China’s value-added imports during 1995-2009

表3 1995—2009年中国与美国单位增加值能耗

Table 3 Energy consumption of added value in China and the U.S. during 1995-2009 tce/万美元

表4 1995—2009年中国与美国单位增加值隐含碳排放

Table 4 Implied carbon emissions in China and the U.S. during 1995-2009 t/万美元

图3 1995—2009年中国隐含能源出口

Fig. 3 China’s embodied energy exports during 1995-2009

图4 1995—2009年中国隐含能源进口

Fig. 4 China’s embodied energy imports during 1995-2009

图5 1995—2009年中国隐含碳出口

Fig. 5 China’s embodied carbon exports during 1995-2009

图6 1995—2009年中国隐含碳进口

Fig. 6 China’s embodied carbon imports during 1995-2009

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