1 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China 2 CNPC Economics &Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China; 3 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China 4 Economics &Technology Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China;
The gap of energy-related-CO2 emission pathways between the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and realizing the target of limiting temperature rise below 2℃ was researched based on an integrated assessment modal of climate change—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-TU). Results show that the NDCs are not enough to realize the target. Each country or party should enhance its NDC after 2030. The analyses of carbon intensity reduction, abatement costs, and carbon emission per capita of the main countries and parties demonstrate the great efforts and contributions of China in the process of global emission reduction. On the contrary, the commitments of regions like South Africa and Japan seem insufficient. To meet the commitment, the final energy consumption of China would reduce compared with the reference scenario, and the energy structure would have a further optimization.
Pan X, Elzen M D, H?hne N , et al. Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals[J]. Environmental Science & Policy, 2017,74:49-56
JGCRI. Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) 2018 [EB/OL]. 2018 [ 2018- 04- 04].
Clarke L, Kyle P, Wise M , et al. CO2 emission mitigation and technological advance: an updated analysis of advance technology scenarios [R]. Pacific Northwest National Laboratory Technical Report PNNL-18075, Richland: U.S. Department of Energy, 2008
McJeon H, Edmonds J, Bauer N , et al. Limited impact on decadal-scale climate change from increased use of natural gas[J]. Nature, 2014,514:482-485
UCAR. MAGICC: Model for the assessment of greenhouse-gas induced climate change 2018 [EB/OL]. 2018 [ 2018- 04- 04].
JGCRI. GCAM documentation: the GCAM macro-economic system 2018 [EB/OL]. 2018 [ 2018- 04- 04].
Eom J, Moss R, Edmonds J , et al. Scenarios of future socio-economics, energy, land use, and radiative forcing [M] // Robert G. Watts. Engineering response to climate change second edition. Boca Raton: CRC Press, 2013
CAIT Climate Data Explorer. Paris contribution map 2018 [EB/OL]. 2018 [ 2018- 04- 04].