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气候变化研究进展  2018, Vol. 14 Issue (6): 613-620    DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.047
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国家自主决定贡献的减排力度评价
王利宁1,2,杨雷1,陈文颖1,单葆国3,张成龙3,尹硕4
1 清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 100084
2 中国石油经济技术研究院,北京 100724
3 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京 102209
4 国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,郑州 450052
Assessment of carbon reduction effect of the Nationally Determined Contributions
Li-Ning WANG1,2,Lei YANG1,Wen-Ying CHEN1,Bao-Guo SHAN3,Cheng-Long ZHANG3,Shuo YIN4
1 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
2 CNPC Economics &Technology Research Institute, Beijing 100724, China;
3 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
4 Economics &Technology Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China;
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摘要 

基于气候变化综合模型——全球变化评价模型(GCAM-TU),分析了2030年各国家/地区减排承诺下能源相关CO2的全球排放路径与不同可能性下2℃温升目标对应的最优排放路径的差距。研究发现,当前减排承诺下的全球排放路径与最优路径仍存在一定差距,各国家/地区需加大2030年后的减排承诺力度。进一步分析了主要国家/地区在各自减排承诺下的碳强度下降率、减排成本和人均碳排放,得出中国在全球减排进程中的努力和贡献是巨大的,而南非、日本等国承诺力度不足。为实现自主决定贡献,中国终端能源消耗将较参考情景有所下降,能源结构将进一步优化。

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王利宁
杨雷
陈文颖
单葆国
张成龙
尹硕
关键词:  气候变化  自主决定贡献(NDCs )  综合评价模型  2℃温升目标    
Abstract: 

The gap of energy-related-CO2 emission pathways between the Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) submitted to United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and realizing the target of limiting temperature rise below 2℃ was researched based on an integrated assessment modal of climate change—Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM-TU). Results show that the NDCs are not enough to realize the target. Each country or party should enhance its NDC after 2030. The analyses of carbon intensity reduction, abatement costs, and carbon emission per capita of the main countries and parties demonstrate the great efforts and contributions of China in the process of global emission reduction. On the contrary, the commitments of regions like South Africa and Japan seem insufficient. To meet the commitment, the final energy consumption of China would reduce compared with the reference scenario, and the energy structure would have a further optimization.

Key words:  Climate change    Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs)    Integrated assessment model    2℃target
收稿日期:  2018-04-08      修回日期:  2018-06-07           出版日期:  2018-11-30      发布日期:  2018-11-30      期的出版日期:  2018-11-30
基金资助: 国家电网公司科技项目(5217L017000N)
通讯作者:  陈文颖   
作者简介:  王利宁,男,博士;
引用本文:    
王利宁, 杨雷, 陈文颖, 单葆国, 张成龙, 尹硕. 国家自主决定贡献的减排力度评价[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2018, 14(6): 613-620.
Li-Ning WANG, Lei YANG, Wen-Ying CHEN, Bao-Guo SHAN, Cheng-Long ZHANG, Shuo YIN. Assessment of carbon reduction effect of the Nationally Determined Contributions. Climate Change Research, 2018, 14(6): 613-620.
链接本文:  
http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.047  或          http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/Y2018/V14/I6/613
图1  GCAM-TU能源系统结构
Table 1  NDCs of main countries and parties
图2  不同情景下全球CO2排放
图3  2010—2030年间各主要国家和地区的年均碳强度下降率
图4  2010—2030年间各国/地区的减排成本(占GDP的比例)
图5  2030年各国家/地区人均碳排放
图6  Ref和NDC_high情景下中国一次能源消费量
图7  Ref和NDC_high情景下中国终端分部门能耗
图8  Ref和NDC_high情景下中国发电量及结构变化
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