澜沧江源区气温与降水对径流变化的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.103

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (3): 306-315.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.103

澜沧江源区气温与降水对径流变化的影响

王珂^1,^2,³,蒲焘⁴,史晓宜⁵,孔彦龙^1,^2,³()

1 中国科学院地质与地球物理研究所,北京 100029
2 中国科学院地球科学研究院,北京 100029
3 中国科学院大学,北京 100049
4 中国科学院西北生态环境资源研究院冰冻圈科学国家重点实验室,兰州 730000
5 兰州大学资源环境学院,兰州 730000

收稿日期:2019-04-30 修回日期:2019-06-30 出版日期:2020-05-30 发布日期:2020-06-15
通讯作者: 孔彦龙 E-mail:ylkong@mail.iggcas.ac.cn
作者简介:王珂,男,博士研究生, wangke@mail.iggcas.ac.cn
基金资助:
国家自然科学基金项目(91647101);国家自然科学基金项目(U1703122)

Impact of temperature and precipitation on runoff change in the source region of Lancang River

Ke WANG^1,^2,³,Tao PU⁴,Xiao-Yi SHI⁵,Yan-Long KONG^1,^2,³()

1 Institute of Geology and Geophysics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
2 Institutions of Earth Science, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
3 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
4 State Key Laboratory of Cryospheric Sciences, Northwest Institute of Eco-Environment and Resources, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Lanzhou 730000, China
5 College of Earth and Environmental Sciences, Lanzhou University, Lanzhou 730000, China

Received:2019-04-30 Revised:2019-06-30 Online:2020-05-30 Published:2020-06-15
Contact: Yan-Long KONG E-mail:ylkong@mail.iggcas.ac.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

为研究澜沧江源区水文气候变化特征,采用线性回归拟合分析方法、M-K非参数检验法对1960—2010年间澜沧江源区的水文气候变化趋势进行分析,计算了各季节气温变化对年气温变化的贡献量,并基于Pearson相关分析法和贡献率的计算讨论了降水量和气温对径流量变化的影响。结果表明:澜沧江源区年平均气温和各季节平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,其中,冬季的增温对年平均气温增加贡献最大(38%)。澜沧江流域源区年降水量无明显增减趋势,但春季降水量显著增加。澜沧江流域源区年径流量未呈现显著变化趋势,冬季和春季径流量呈现出显著的增加趋势。年际尺度上,径流量的主控因素是降水量,降水量对径流量年内变化的影响主要发生在降水相对丰沛的6—10月份;冬季和初春季节气温上升对径流量的改变存在一定的影响,且气温的贡献率要比降水的贡献率大,原因是气温升高加剧研究区内冰雪的消融,进而导致澜沧江源区的径流增加。

关键词: 澜沧江源区, 径流变化, 气温, 降水

Abstract:

Based on the methods of linear regression, M-K and Pearson correlation analysis, the characteristics of the runoff change in the source region of Lancang River during 1960-2010 and its main influencing factors of temperature and precipitation were analyzed. Results show that there is a significant increasing trend of temperature in the source region of Lancang River and the winter temperature rise does the largest contribution (38%) to the annual increasing of temperature. The annual precipitation does not change significantly although there is a remarkable increasing trend of spring precipitation. The annual runoff in the study area exhibits no significant trend. However, both winter and spring runoff increase significantly. Correlation analysis shows that precipitation is the main controlling factor for the annual runoff. Monthly runoff change is also dominated by precipitation during the period with plentiful rainfall from June to October. However, the temperature has an important influence on runoff change during early spring and winter, which is attributed to the increasing temperature causing the accelerated melting of ice and snow. The quantitative analysis indicates that temperature has a larger contribution rate to runoff change than that of precipitation within early spring and winter.

Key words: Source region of Lancang River, Runoff change, Temperature, Precipitation

王珂,蒲焘,史晓宜,孔彦龙. 澜沧江源区气温与降水对径流变化的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(3): 306-315.

Ke WANG,Tao PU,Xiao-Yi SHI,Yan-Long KONG. Impact of temperature and precipitation on runoff change in the source region of Lancang River[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(3): 306-315.

图/表 11

图1 澜沧江源区流域图

Fig. 1 The geographical feature in the upper reach of Lancang River

图2 1960—2010年研究区年平均气温

Fig. 2 Annual mean temperature in the study area during 1960-2010

表1 研究区两个气象站气温变化率及M-K趋势检验结果

Table 1 Results of the M-K trend analysis and change rate of temperature at the two meteorological stations

图3 研究区水文气候要素逐月变化

Fig. 3 Monthly mean runoff, precipitation and temperature in the study area

图4 1960—2010年研究区降水量年际变化

Fig. 4 Annual variation of precipitation in the study area during 1960-2010

表2 研究区降水量变化率及M-K趋势检验结果

Table 2 Results of the M-K trend analysis and change rate of precipitation at the two meteorological stations

图5 1960—2010年研究区径流深年际变化

Fig. 5 Inter-annual variation of runoff depth in the study area during 1960-2010

表3 研究区径流深变化率及M-K趋势检验结果

Table 3 Results of the M-K trend analysis and change rate of runoff depth in the study area

表4 研究区径流深与气象站气温与降水量的相关系数

Table 4 The correlation coefficient between runoff depth and meteorological factors in the study area

表5 杂多气象站气温与降水量对径流量变化的贡献率

Table 5 The contribution rate of meteorological factors to runoff variation in the study area

表6 澜沧江流域冰川径流比例研究统计表

Table 6 The estimated percentage of glacier runoff in annual runoff in Lancang River catchment

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澜沧江源区气温与降水对径流变化的影响

Impact of temperature and precipitation on runoff change in the source region of Lancang River

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