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气候变化研究进展  2019, Vol. 15 Issue (1): 12-22    DOI: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.082
  气候系统变化 本期目录 | 过刊浏览 | 高级检索 |
东北5月降水在21世纪初的年代际变化及可能成因
郭恒,肖子牛
中国科学院大气物理研究所大气科学和地球流体力学数值模拟国家重点实验室,北京 100029
Decadal variation of rainfall in May over Northeast China since the early 21st century and possible causes
Heng GUO,Zi-Niu XIAO
State Key Laboratory of Numerical Modeling for Atmospheric Sciences and Geophysical Fluid Dynamics, Institute of Atmospheric Physics, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100029, China
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摘要 

基于1961—2015年东北地区的台站降水观测资料及全球环流和海温再分析资料,利用统计分析、物理量诊断等方法,探讨了东北5月降水的年代际变化,及其与大气环流和海温外强迫的关系。研究发现,东北5月降水具有和东北盛夏降水明显不同的年代际变化特征,在20世纪80年代中期至90年代初处于年代际偏少阶段,而在21世纪初转变为年代际偏多阶段。东北5月降水在21世纪初的年代际变化主要由5月东北亚低压强弱的年代际变化造成,在21世纪初,东北亚低压相对于气候态明显偏强,有利于东北降水偏多;而在20世纪80年代初至90年代初,东北亚低压减弱为较浅的低槽,导致东北降水偏少。来自北大西洋的欧亚大陆位势高度异常波列引起东北亚上空的垂直运动异常,导致了东北亚低压的上述年代际变化。5月热带北大西洋海温异常很可能是激发上述波列进而造成东北亚低压和东北5月降水在21世纪初年代际变化的外强迫信号。

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郭恒
肖子牛
关键词:  东北地区  5月降水  年代际变化  东北亚低压  北大西洋海温    
Abstract: 

Based on monthly gauged rainfall data in Northeast China and the global atmospheric and oceanic reanalysis dataset for 1961-2015, the decadal changes of rainfall in May over Northeast China (NEC) as well as its relationship with atmospheric circulation and sea surface temperature were investigated using statistical and diagnostic methods. Different from that in late-summer, the rainfall in May over NEC depicted negative anomalies during 1984-1993 and positive anomalies during the early 21st century. The decadal changes of rainfall in May over NEC is mainly attributed to the decadal variation of Northern East Asian Low (NEAL) in May. During the early 21st century, the NEAL was much stronger than its climatology, resulting in surplus rainfall over NEC. Nevertheless, the NEAL was weakened into a shallow trough during 1984-1993, leading to deficient rainfall over NEC. A wave train in the geopotential height field over the Eurasia causes significant vertical motion over the Northern East Asia, which contributes to the above variation of the NEAL. The sea surface temperature anomalies over the tropical North Atlantic in May is the possible external forcing generating the above wave train, which gives rise to the corresponding decadal changes of rainfall over NEC.

Key words:  Northeast China    Rainfall in May    Decadal changes    Northern East Asian Low (NEAL)    North Atlantic sea surface temperature
收稿日期:  2018-05-28      修回日期:  2018-08-25           出版日期:  2019-01-30      发布日期:  2019-01-30      期的出版日期:  2019-01-30
基金资助: 国家自然科学基金重点项目(91637208);国家自然科学基金(41675095)
通讯作者:  肖子牛   
作者简介:  郭恒,男,博士后,guoheng@lasg.iap.ac.cn;
引用本文:    
郭恒,肖子牛. 东北5月降水在21世纪初的年代际变化及可能成因[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(1): 12-22.
Heng GUO,Zi-Niu XIAO. Decadal variation of rainfall in May over Northeast China since the early 21st century and possible causes. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(1): 12-22.
链接本文:  
http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.082  或          http://www.climatechange.cn/CN/Y2019/V15/I1/12
图1  东北地区38个站点分布图
图2  1961—2015年东北5月降水的标准化时间序列及其11年滑动平均(a)以及降水序列的滑动t检验(b)
图3  东北5月降水距平百分率的空间分布(a) 2004—2015年平均,(b) 1984—1993年平均 注:气候态为1961—2015年。
图4  东北5月降水年代际偏多时段与偏少时段同期环流场的差值 注:浅、深阴影区分别代表显著性水平为0.05、0.01的区域;蓝、红色分别表示负、正异常区;矢量风场合成图上填色表示经向风显著区,红线包围区域表示纬向风显著区。
图5  东北亚地区不同时段平均的5月850 hPa位势高度场(单位:gpm)、矢量风场(单位:m/s)和涡度场
图6  1961—2015年5月东北亚低压指数的标准化时间序列及其11年滑动平均
图7  东北5月降水年代际偏多时段(a)和年代际偏少时段(b)平均的5月垂直环流场异常分布 注:117.5?~132.5?E平均,垂直速度已扩大100倍;浅、深阴影区分别表示显著性水平为0.05、0.01的区域;蓝、红色分别表示上升、下沉异常区。
图8  东北5月降水年代际偏多时段与偏少时段的5月位势高度场的差值 注:位势高度场的单位为gpm;浅、深填色区分别表示显著性水平为0.05、0.01的区域;蓝、红色分别表示负、正异常显著区。
图9  东北5月降水年代际偏多时段与偏少时段的全球海温场的差值 注:浅、深填色区分别表示显著性为0.05、0.01的区域;蓝、红色分别表示负、正异常区;这里冬季指12月至次年2月,春季指3—5月,夏季指6—8月。
图10  前期冬季12月至当年8月热带北大西洋海温指数、高纬度北大西洋指数分别与东北5月降水的相关系数演变
图11  1961—2015年5月热带北大西洋海温指数的标准化时间序列及其11年滑动平均
图12  热带北大西洋海温指数正异常年(a)和负异常年(b)合成东北亚地区5月850 hPa位势高度场和矢量风场
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