关键词: 气候变化, 传播范围, 传播强度, 血吸虫病, 中国

Abstract: The purpose of the investigation is to project the scale and intensity changes of schistosomiasis transmission in China, under the IPCC A2 and B2 scenarios in the 2005s (1991-2005) , 2050s (2046-2050) and 2070s (2066-2070) , respectively, based on the integration of the PRECIS model and disease transmission models. Results show that the distributive boundary of schistosomiasis will be extended northward both in the 2050s and 2070s under the A2 and B2 scenarios, especially in Anhui and Jiangsu Province of east China. In the 2050s, the distributive boundaries are similar under the A2 and B2 scenarios, and the endemic areas are most distributed along large rivers and lakes where the schistosomiasis transmission index is higher than 1800. Particularly the transmission index is significantly high along the Yangtze River and Dongting Lake in the 2050s. Furthermore, the schistosomiasis transmission scale under the A2 scenario is larger than that under the B2 scenario in the 2070s, and parts of Shandong Province will become potential endemic areas. By comparing the two periods of the 2050s and 2070s, the spatial patterns of schistosomiasis transmission index are similar, while the schistosomiasis transmission index will increase significantly in the 2070s, especially under the A2 scenario. In conclusion, the transmission scale and intensity of schistosomiasis will change significantly under the A2 and B2 scenarios in the 2050s and 2070s, especially under A2 scenario, except that the adaptation measures are taken or the transmission of schistosomiasis is impacted by other environmental factors.

Key words: climate change, transmission scale, transmission intensity, schistosomiasis, projection, China