关键词: 气候变化, 排放配额, 参数敏感性, 历史责任

Abstract:

Focused on the main allocation schemes in the international community at present, China’s emission allowances during 2011-2050 under the 2℃ target are studied in this paper. The sensitivity of parameter settings are further analyzed by controlling key variables. The results indicate that to follow the RCP2.6 pathway consistent with the 2℃ target, China would receive allowances around 150-440 Gt CO₂ until 2050. However, the schemes purely based on equal per capita emission have already been the most unfavorable to China. To preserve reasonable emission rights, China should insist on the full coverage of historical responsibilities in climate negotiations. The choice of global emission pathways will significantly affect China’s allowances. If the global budget is reduced by 40%-50% compared with the 2010 level, the range of China’s CO₂ allowances is 151-474 Gt CO₂. If the reduction increases to 50%-60%, the range changes to 138-478 Gt CO₂. It shows that the floor of China’s fair range will be relied on the global pathway more greatly.

Key words: climate change, emission allowance, parameter sensitivity, historical responsibility