气候变化研究进展 ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (2): 115-122.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.02.006

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化对新疆哈密瓜种植气候区划的影响

普宗朝1,张山清2,吉春容3,李景林2,李新建2,王命全2,邹 陈3   

  1. 1 新疆乌鲁木齐市气象局,乌鲁木齐 830002
    2 新疆农业气象台,乌鲁木齐 830002
    3 中国气象局乌鲁木齐沙漠气象研究所,乌鲁木齐 830002
  • 收稿日期:2014-11-20 修回日期:2015-01-25 出版日期:2015-03-30 发布日期:2015-03-30
  • 通讯作者: 普宗朝 E-mail:puzongchao@163.com

Impacts of Climate Change on Melon-Planting Zoning in Xinjiang in 1961-2013

Pu Zongchao1, Zhang Shanqing2, Ji Chunrong3, Li Jinglin2, Li Xinjian2, Wang Mingquan2, Zou Chen3   

  1. 1 Urumqi Meteorological Bureau of Xinjiang, Urumqi 830002, China; 
    2 Xinjiang Agro-meteorological Observatory, Urumqi 830002, China; 
    3 Institute of Desert Meteorology, China Meteorological Administration, Urumqi 830002, China
  • Received:2014-11-20 Revised:2015-01-25 Online:2015-03-30 Published:2015-03-30

摘要: 基于新疆101个气象台站1961—2013年逐日平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和日照时数资料,采用线性趋势分析、累积距平、保证率分析以及ArcGIS空间插值方法,分析影响哈密瓜种植的关键气候因子(日平均气温稳定≥15℃日数、≥20℃光温指数以及6—8月平均气温日较差)时空变化特征,并结合各气候因子突变前、后的变化特征,研究了气候变化对新疆不同熟型哈密瓜最佳种植区、次佳种植区和不宜种植区分布区域及其面积的影响。结果表明:新疆≥15℃日数、≥20℃光温指数、6—8月平均气温日较差的空间分布表现为“南疆多、北疆少,东部多、西部少,平原和盆地多、山区少”的特点。近53年,新疆≥15℃日数以2.493 d/10a的倾向率显著增多(P<0.001),≥20℃光温指数以0.06/10a的倾向率显著增大(P<0.001),6—8月平均气温日较差以-0.249℃/10a的倾向率显著(P<0.001)减小,各要素还分别于1997年和1987年发生了突变。新疆哈密瓜种植气候可分为4个大区和7个亚区。受气候变化的影响,1997年后较其之前,新疆中、晚熟哈密瓜最佳种植区明显扩大,次佳种植区有所减小;早熟哈密瓜适宜种植区以及哈密瓜不宜种植区也不同程度地减小。

关键词: 气候变化, 大于等于15度日数, 大于等于20度光温指数, 气温日较差, 哈密瓜种植气候区划, 新疆

Abstract: Based on the data of daily mean temperature, maximum and minimum temperature, duration of sunshine, from 101 meteorological stations in Xinjiang in 1961-2013, the fundamental spatial-temporal change characteristic of key climatic factors (≥15℃ days, ≥20℃ temperature-light index and mean range of daily temperature from June to August) affecting melon-planting were analyzed by using the methods of linear regression, accumulative anomaly, guarantee rate analysis and mixed spatial interpolation technology based on ArcGIS. And the impacts of climate change on melon-planting zoning were studied by combining with the change characteristics of key climate factors before and after mutation. The main results showed, spatial distribution of ≥15℃ days, ≥20℃ temperature-light index, and mean range of daily temperature from June to August had very obvious difference from place to place in Xinjiang. Generally, they were more or higher in south and east than in north and west, in plain and basin than in mountain regions. In the background of global warming, the ≥15℃ days, ≥20℃ temperature-light index presented significantly increasing trend with the rate of 2.493 d/10a and 0.06/10a, respectively, and they had mutation in 1997. But mean range of daily temperature from June to August had a significantly decreasing trend with the rate of -0.249/10a and had mutation in 1987 in 1961-2013. According to the climatic conditions of various maturing melon growth and quality, melon-planting climatic zoning can be divided into 4 regions and 7 sub-regions in Xinjiang. Due to climate change, the best planting zone expanded significantly in terms of mid-maturing and late-maturing melon, the second-best planting area of them decreased, the suitable planting area of early-maturing melon, unsuitable planting area for melon decreased after 1997 in Xinjiang.

Key words: climate change, days, temperature-light index, mean range of daily temperature, melon- planting climatic division, Xinjiang

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