关键词: 气候变化, 海洋碳循环, 碳循环模拟

Abstract: Based on the simulations using the University of Victoria Earth System Climate Model under the scenario of RCP8.5, the responses of ocean carbon cycle to increasing atmospheric CO₂ and climate change from year 1800 to 2500 were analyzed. Relative to the simulation case with no climate change, the simulation with climate sensitivity 3.0 K shows that in 2100, due to the increase of atmospheric CO₂ concentrations simulated sea surface temperature increases by 2.7 K, the intensity of the North Atlantic deep water formation reduces by 4.5 Sv, and oceanic uptake of anthropogenic CO₂ decreases by 0.8 Pg C. As for ocean column inventory of anthropogenic CO₂, climate change is found to have a large effect in the North Atlantic. During 1800-2500, compared to the simulation with no climate change, climate change causes a reduction of total anthropogenic CO₂ column inventory in the entire ocean and North Atlantic by 23.1% and 32.0%, respectively. A set of simulations with climate sensitivity varying from 0.5 K to 4.5 K show that with a greater climate sensitivity climate change would have a larger effect in reducing the ocean’s ability to absorb CO₂ from the atmosphere.

Key words: climate change, ocean carbon cycle, carbon cycle modeling