气候变化研究进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (3): 191-196.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.03.006

• IPCC第五次评估报告WGII专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

IPCC第五次评估报告对跨区域影响的新认识

侯 威,朱晓金,姜 彤   

  1. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2014-01-26 修回日期:2014-04-03 出版日期:2014-05-30 发布日期:2014-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 侯威 E-mail:houwei@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    全球气候变化对气候灾害的影响及区域适应研究;区域干旱事件前兆信号的非线性检测方法及其可预报性研究

Updated Understanding of the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report on Cross-Regional Aspects of Climate Change

Hou Wei, Zhu Xiaojin, Jiang Tong   

  1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2014-01-26 Revised:2014-04-03 Online:2014-05-30 Published:2014-05-30
  • Contact: Wei HOU E-mail:houwei@cma.gov.cn

摘要: IPCC第五次评估报告(AR5)第二工作组(WGII)报告认为,气候变化对世界上大部分区域的自然和人类系统的影响将进一步加剧,其对非洲最大的影响预计发生在半干旱的环境,增加现有的水资源可利用量和农业系统的压力;气候变化已导致北欧地区的谷物产量增加而南欧地区的产量降低,未来的变化将增加欧洲的灌溉需求;在亚洲的许多地区,气候变化将导致农业生产率下降;气候、大气CO2和海洋酸化的进一步变化预计将对大洋洲的水资源、海岸生态系统、基础设施、健康、农业和生物多样性产生实质性的影响;在北美,许多带来风险的气候压迫力的频率和强度将在未来几十年增加;中美洲和南美洲许多国家的持续高水平贫困导致了对气候变率和变化的高脆弱性;在北极,气候变化与非气候相关驱动在确定的物理、生物和社会经济风险上交互作用,变化率可能超过了社会系统适应的速率;在气候和非气候因素的影响下,小岛屿具有高度的脆弱性,同时,气候变暖将增加海洋生态系统的风险。

关键词: 气候变化, 区域影响, IPCC第五次评估报告

Abstract: Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (AR5) presents new findings of cross-regional impacts of climate change. In Africa, climate change will amplify existing stress on water availability and on agricultural systems particularly in semi-arid environments. In Europe, climate change will increase the likelihood of systemic failures across European countries caused by extreme climate events affecting multiple sectors. In Asia, climate change will cause declines in agricultural productivity in many subregions of Asia, for crops such as rice. In Australasia, without adaptation, further changes in climate, atmospheric CO2 and ocean acidity are projected to have substantial impacts on water resources, coastal ecosystems, infrastructure, health, agriculture and biodiversity. In North America, many climate-related hazards which carry risk, particularly related to severe heat, heavy precipitation, and declining snowpack, will increase in frequency and/or severity in the next decades. In Central and South America, despite improvements, high and persistent levels of poverty in most countries result in high vulnerability to climate variability and change. In the Arctic, climate change and often-interconnected non-climate-related drivers, including environmental changes, demography, culture, and economic development, interact to determine physical, biological and socioeconomic risks, with rates of change that may be faster than social systems can adapt. Small islands have high vulnerability to climatic and non-climatic stressors. Warming will increase risks to ocean ecosystems.

Key words: climate change, regional impact, IPCC AR5

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