气候变化研究进展 ›› 2014, Vol. 10 ›› Issue (3): 167-174.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2014.03.002

• IPCC第五次评估报告WGII专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化影响和适应认知的演进及对气候政策的影响

巢清尘1, 刘昌义1, 袁佳双2     

  1. 1 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081;
    2 中国气象局科技与气候变化司,北京 100081
     
  • 收稿日期:2014-02-07 修回日期:2014-03-05 出版日期:2014-05-30 发布日期:2014-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 巢清尘 E-mail:chaoqc@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    IPCC第五次评估对我国应对气候变化战略的影响

The Evolvement of Impact and Adaptation on Climate Change and Their Implications on Climate Policies

Chao Qingchen1, Liu Changyi1, Yuan Jiashuang2   

  1. 1 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China; 
    2 Department of Science & Technology and Climate Change, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2014-02-07 Revised:2014-03-05 Online:2014-05-30 Published:2014-05-30

摘要: 通过分析IPCC第二工作组的5次评估报告对气候变化影响、适应的主要结论和方法的演进、原因以及对国际适应谈判和国家适应政策的影响,指出由于文献的迅速增加,影响评估方法和适应技术手段的不断成熟,以及思维的转变和意识的逐渐增强,IPCC进一步确认了气候变化已经并将继续对自然生态系统和人类社会产生广泛而深刻的影响;未来社会经济发展路径、适应和减缓行动以及风险治理将影响气候变化带来的风险。IPCC报告极大地推动了国际和各国适应气候变化科学研究和政策实践的进程。尽管中国各级各部门已逐渐将适应融入到相关政策中,但仍然存在认识、能力、体制机制等问题,需要进一步推进国家和各地的适应工作。

关键词: 气候变化, 影响, 适应, 气候政策

Abstract: Through analysis of the evolvement of major conclusions and methods for impacts and adaptation on climate change in the IPCC WGII five assessment reports, the causes and their impacts on international adaptation negotiations and domestic adaptation policies were studied. It points out that because of the rapid increase of literature, sophistication of methods and tools for evaluation and adaptation, increasing concerns and more emphasis on adaptation, IPCC further confirms that climate change has had and will have extensive and profound impacts on natural and human systems; future social-economic pathways, adaptation and mitigation, and risk governance at different levels will affect climate-related risks. IPCC assessment reports promote the formation and implementation of adaptation policies both at the international and national levels. Although China has merged adaptation into related domestic policies, still there are problems in cognition, capacity, mechanisms and institutions. More efforts are needed to enhance national and local adaption efforts.

Key words: climate change, impact, adaptation, climate policy

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