IPCC AR6的“产生影响的气候因子”评估框架

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.190

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

IPCC第六次评估报告（AR6）第一工作组报告提出了基于“产生影响的气候因子”（CID）的气候变化评估框架,以一组影响社会或生态系统的气候状态为基础进行气候变化评估。这个CID评估框架有7个类型,33个气候因子,每个因子可以针对被影响对象采用不同的评估指标。CID变化具有时间尺度差异性与不可逆性、突变性与临界点、凸现时间、复合性以及受影响主体依赖性等重要特征。基于CID的气候变化评估框架有助于更客观、中立、全面地评估气候变化给不同部门带来的影响和风险。

关键词: IPCC, 气候变化, 气候变化评估框架, 产生影响的气候因子（CID）

Abstract:

The Climatic Impact-Driver (CID) framework is developed in the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). CIDs are physical climate system conditions (e.g., means, events, extremes) that affect an element of society or ecosystems. The CID framework includes seven categories, thirty-three climate factors, and each factor can be assessed using different evaluation indices for diffeent affected sectors. The major features of CIDs include their time scale variety and irreversibility, mutation and tipping points, the time of emergence, compoundness, and their dependence on affected system elements. The CID framework is helpful for making more objective, neutral and comprehensive assessments on the impacts and risks of climate change.

Key words: IPCC, Climate change, Climate change assessment framework, Climatic Impact-Driver (CID)

王文, 傅文睿. IPCC AR6的“产生影响的气候因子”评估框架[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(6): 719-725.

WANG Wen, FU Wen-Rui. The Climatic Impact-Driver framework[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(6): 719-725.

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