气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (6): 685-690.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.162

• IPCC第六次评估报告WGI专栏 • 上一篇    下一篇

IPCC AR6报告解读:短寿命气候强迫因子的气候及环境效应

廖宏(), 谢佩芙   

  1. 南京信息工程大学 江苏省大气环境监测与污染控制高技术研究重点实验室/大气环境与装备技术协同创新中心/环境科学与工程学院,南京 210044
  • 收稿日期:2021-08-11 修回日期:2021-09-02 出版日期:2021-11-30 发布日期:2021-10-09
  • 作者简介:廖宏,女,教授, hongliao@nuist.edu.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家重点研发计划全球变化及应对重点专项项目(2019YFA0606804)

The roles of short-lived climate forcers in a changing climate

LIAO Hong(), XIE Pei-Fu   

  1. Jiangsu Key Laboratory of Atmospheric Environment Monitoring and Pollution Control/Jiangsu Collaborative Innovation Center of Atmospheric Environment and Equipment Technology/School of Environmental Science and Engineering, Nanjing University of Information Science &Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2021-08-11 Revised:2021-09-02 Online:2021-11-30 Published:2021-10-09

摘要:

影响气候变化的大气成分,依据其在大气中存留的时间,分为长寿命的温室气体和短寿命的气候强迫因子(SLCFs)。考虑到SLCFs在气候变化和大气环境中的重要作用,IPCC第六次评估报告(AR6)首次有了专门针对SLCFs的章节(第六章)。本文解读IPCC报告关于SLCFs的主要结论,特别强调AR5以来的最新结论,包括:SLCFs的定义、SLCFs排放和大气含量的变化特征及其对辐射强迫和全球气候的影响、不同共享社会经济路径(SSP)情景下SLCFs对未来气候变化和空气质量可能的影响,以及COVID-19疫情期间减排对气候变化的影响。文末也讨论了结论的不确定性以及结论对我国的启示。

关键词: 短寿命气候强迫因子(SLCFs), 气溶胶, 甲烷, 气候变化, 空气质量

Abstract:

Atmospheric components that can influence climate change can be classified as long-lived greenhouse gases and short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), according to their lifetimes in the atmosphere. Considering the important roles of SLCFs in climate change and air quality, IPCC AR6 has for the first time the dedicated chapter for the assessment of SLCFs. This work summarizes the major conclusions on SLCFs, especially those since AR5, including the definition of SLCFs, changes in emissions and abundances of SLCFs, the effective radiative forcings of SLCFs and climate responses, projected future changes in climate and air quality under Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), and the impact of COVID-19 lockdown on climate. We also discuss the uncertainties associated with the AR6 conclusions as well as the implications for climate and air quality in China.

Key words: Short-lived climate forcers (SLCFs), Aerosols, Methane (CH4), Climate change, Air quality

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