气候变化条件下雅砻江流域未来径流变化趋势研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.176

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 596-606.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.176

气候变化条件下雅砻江流域未来径流变化趋势研究

董立俊^1,²,董晓华^1,²(),曾强^1,²,魏冲^1,²,喻丹^1,²,薄会娟^1,²,郭靖³

1 三峡大学水利与环境学院,宜昌 443002
2 水资源安全保障湖北省协同创新中心,武汉 430070
3 中国电建集团华东勘测设计研究院有限公司,杭州 310014

收稿日期:2018-12-04 修回日期:2019-01-07 出版日期:2019-11-30 发布日期:2019-11-30
通讯作者: 董晓华 E-mail:xhdong@ctgu.edu.cn
作者简介:董立俊,男,硕士研究生,529023062@qq.com
基金资助:
水电工程水文气象重大关键技术应用研究(DJ-ZDZX-2016-02);国家自然科学基金项目(40701024,41401018)

Long-term runoff change trend of Yalong River basin under future climate change scenarios

Li-Jun DONG^1,²,Xiao-Hua DONG^1,²(),Qiang ZENG^1,²,Chong WEI^1,²,Dan YU^1,²,Hui-Juan BO^1,²,Jing GUO³

1 College of Hydraulic and Environmental Engineering, China Three Gorges University, Yichang 443002, China
2 Water Resources Security Collaborative Innovation Center in Hubei Province, Wuhan 430070, China
3 Power China Huadong Engineering Corporation Ltd., Hangzhou 310014, China

Received:2018-12-04 Revised:2019-01-07 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-11-30
Contact: Xiao-Hua DONG E-mail:xhdong@ctgu.edu.cn

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

雅砻江为我国重要的水电基地,未来气候变化条件下流域径流变化将直接影响雅砻江梯级水库群运行安全和发电调度,因此研究气候变化对雅砻江流域径流的影响十分必要。首先建立了流域月尺度的SWAT模型,然后使用统计降尺度模型（SDSM）模拟未来2006—2100年流域内各站点的气象数据,最后使用流域SWAT模型对未来2006—2100年月径流进行模拟。结果表明,未来雅砻江流域径流呈上升趋势,且增幅随着辐射强迫的增加同步增大,RCP2.6、RCP4.5、RCP8.5这3种典型浓度路径下年平均径流增幅分别为8.9%、12.5%、16.7%,且2020S（2006—2035年)、2050S（2036—2065年)、2080S（2066—2100年）这3个时期年径流量呈现不同的变化趋势,其中RCP2.6浓度路径下为先逐步增加达到峰值后略有减少,RCP4.5浓度路径下为先逐步增加达到峰值后趋于稳定,RCP8.5浓度路径下为持续增加。流域径流年内分配方面,3种典型浓度路径下汛期径流占全年比例在2020S、2050S、2080S这3个时期均为先降后升趋势,整个预测期总体为降低趋势,RCP2.6、RCP4.5及RCP8.5这3种浓度路径下整个预测期的均值分别由基准期的75.9%降低为72.9%、72.0%、71.2%。径流增加会对流域洪水特性产生较大影响,为此应该修正流域设计洪水计算结果和调整防洪调度方案,以降低雅砻江流域梯级水库群因气候变化而产生的运行风险,并提高发电调度效率。

关键词: 气候变化, SWAT模型, 统计降尺度模型（SDSM), 水文响应

Abstract:

Yalong River basin is an important hydropower base in China. The runoff variation of Yalong River basin under climate change scenarios in future will directly affect the operation safety and power generation dispatch of cascade reservoirs. Therefore, it is necessary to study the impact of climate change on the runoff of Yalong River basin. Firstly, the the monthly SWAT model of the watershed is established, then the meteorological data of each station is predicted by using SDSM from 2006 to 2100. Finally, the future runoff of Yalong River basin is simulated by using the calibrated SWAT model from 2006 to 2100. The results show that the runoff of Yalong River will increase in the future, and increase synchronously with the enhancement of radiation forcing. The annual average runoff growth rates of RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 are 8.9%, 12.5% and 16.7% respectively, and the annual runoff of 2020S, 2050S and 2080S under three RCPs shows different trends. Under the RCP2.6, it increases gradually to the peak value and then decreases slightly. Under the RCP4.5, it increases gradually to the peak value and then stabilizes. While under the RCP8.5, it increases continuously. In terms of annual distribution of runoff, the proportion of runoff in flood season under three RCPs decreases first and then increases in the three periods of 2020S, 2050S and 2080S. The overall trend in the whole forecast period is decreasing. Under the RCP2.6, RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 concentration paths, the mean proportion of the whole forecast period decreases from 75.9% of the base period to 72.9%, 72.0% and 71.2%, respectively. The increase of runoff will have a greater impact on the flood characteristics of the basin. Therefore, the designed flood in the basin should be revised and flood control dispatching schemes adjusted to reduce the operational risk of cascade reservoirs and to improve the efficiency of power generation dispatching in the Yalong River basin due to climate change.

Key words: Climate change, SWAT model, Statistical downscaling model (SDSM), Hydrological response

董立俊,董晓华,曾强,魏冲,喻丹,薄会娟,郭靖. 气候变化条件下雅砻江流域未来径流变化趋势研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(6): 596-606.

Li-Jun DONG,Xiao-Hua DONG,Qiang ZENG,Chong WEI,Dan YU,Hui-Juan BO,Jing GUO. Long-term runoff change trend of Yalong River basin under future climate change scenarios[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(6): 596-606.

图/表 12

图1 雅砻江流域DEM、水系图及气象水文站点位置

Fig. 1 Map of DEM, river system and hydrological stations in Yalong River basin

图2 雅砻江流域土壤空间分布及土地利用分类

Fig. 2 Map of soil spatial distribution and land use in Yalong River basin

表1 参数率定结果

Table 1 Results of parameter calibration

图3 雅砻江流域月径流模拟结果

Fig. 3 Monthly runoff simulation in Yalong River basin

表2 模型模拟精度

Table 2 Accuracy of model simulation

表3 日最高、日最低气温模拟情况

Table 3 Daily maximum and minimum temperature simulation

表4 年降水量模拟情况

Table 4 Annual precipitation simulation

图4 雅砻江流域多年月平均最高气温基准期与预测期对比

Fig. 4 Monthly mean maximum temperature of base period and forecast period in Yalong River basin

图5 雅砻江流域多年月平均最低气温基准期与预测期对比

Fig. 5 Monthly mean minimum temperature of base period and forecast period in Yalong River basin

图6 雅砻江流域多年月平均降水基准期与预测期对比

Fig. 6 Monthly mean precipitation of base period and forecast period in Yalong River basin

图7 预测期年径流量及汛期径流量占比变化情况

Fig. 7 Change of annual runoff and its proportion in flood season in forecast period

表5 预测期小得石站径流与基准期径流对比表

Table 5 Runoff of base period and forecast period at Xiaodeshi station

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气候变化条件下雅砻江流域未来径流变化趋势研究

Long-term runoff change trend of Yalong River basin under future climate change scenarios

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