樱桃种植户对气候变化及气象灾害的适应行为效能感知研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.158

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

在全球气候变化及气象灾害频发的背景下,农户的适应行为受到了众多学者的关注,而适应行为的效能感知关系到农户能否准确有效地应对气候变化和气象灾害带来的影响,从而提高适应能力,降低生计风险。基于陕西省白鹿原地区9个村落的相关统计数据,运用计划行为理论和路径分析法辨识樱桃种植户适应行为效能感知的影响因素,继而利用有序logistic回归模型探究樱桃种植户属性、气候变化感知及樱桃不同生长阶段的气象灾害感知对较弱适应行为效能感知的影响机制。结果表明：樱桃种植户的行为态度、主观规范和知觉行为控制对适应行为效能的感知程度都具有显著的正向影响;较弱的适应行为效能感知主要受到樱桃种植户年龄、家庭农业收入、近30年本地气候变暖感知以及本地霜冻感知的显著正向影响。最后,基于以上结论提出了具有针对性的政策建议。

关键词: 气候变化, 气象灾害, 适应行为效能感知, 计划行为理论（TPB), 有序logistic回归

Abstract:

In the context of global climate change and frequent meteorological disasters, farmers’ adaptive behaviors have attracted the attention of many scholars. Meanwhile, the efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors is related to farmers’ ability to accurately and effectively cope with the impacts of climate change and meteorological disasters. Based on the survey data from the interviews with cherry growers of 9 villages in Bailuyuan region of Shaanxi Province, this paper uses the theory of planned behavior and path analysis method to identify the influence factors to the efficacy perception of cherry growers’ adaptive behaviors, and then utilizes the ordinal logistic regression model to explore the influence mechanism of cherry growers’ attributes, perception of climate change, perception of meteorological disasters in different growth periods of cherry on the weaker efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors. The results show that attitude towards the behavior, subjective norm and perceived behavioral control of the cherry growers all have significant positive impacts on the efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors, the more positive the individual’s attitude, the greater the pressure from the surrounding, the stronger the ability to implement adaptive behaviors, then the higher the level of efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors. The relatively weaker efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors is mainly affected by the cherry growers’ age, the household agricultural income, the perception of local warming trend in the recent 30 years and the cognition of frost change. Finally, targeted policy suggestions are put forward on the basis of above conclusions.

Key words: Climate change, Meteorological disasters, Efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors, Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB), Ordinal logistic regression

宋臻,史兴民,李欢娟,陈谢扬,高莹. 樱桃种植户对气候变化及气象灾害的适应行为效能感知研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(3): 313-325.

Zhen SONG,Xing-Min SHI,Huan-Juan LI,Xie-Yang CHEN,Ying GAO. Cherry growers’ efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors to climate change and meteorological disasters[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(3): 313-325.

图/表 10

图1 调查地点分布图

Fig. 1 Location of survey sites

表1 变量定义

Table 1 Definitions of selected variables

表2 基于计划行为理论的各变量测量项

Table 2 Measurement items of each variable based on Theory of Planned Behavior

图2 樱桃种植户对气候变化的感知指数

Fig. 2 Cherry growers’ perception index of climate change

表3 樱桃不同生长阶段的划分及相关气候因子、易感灾害信息

Table 3 Different growth stages of cherries and related climate and disasters information

图3 樱桃种植户对气象灾害的感知指数

Fig. 3 Cherry growers’ perception index of meteorological disasters

表4 适应行为效能感知的描述性统计

Table 4 Descriptive statistics of efficacy perception of adaptive behaviors

表5 样本数据检验结果

Table 5 Test results of sample data

表6 路径分析模型结果

Table 6 Results of the model of path analysis

表7 有序logistic回归分析结果

Table 7 Results of ordinal logistic regression analysis

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