太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋酸化影响的模拟研究

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.066

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

研究地球工程对海洋酸化的影响对于评估地球工程对全球气候和环境的影响有重要意义。文中使用中等复杂程度的地球系统模式,模拟了典型CO₂高排放情景RCP8.5下,实施太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋表面的pH和文石（碳酸钙的一种亚稳形态）饱和度的影响,并定量分析了各环境因子对海洋酸化影响的机理。模拟结果表明,在RCP8.5情景下,到2100年,相对于工业革命前水平,全球海洋表面平均pH下降了0.43,文石饱和度下降了1.77。相对于RCP8.5情景,2100年地球工程情景下全球海洋表面平均pH增加了0.003,而文石饱和度降低了0.16。地球工程通过改变溶解无机碳、碱度、温度等环境因子影响海洋酸化。相对于RCP8.5情景,实施地球工程引起的溶解无机碳浓度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均减小,碱度的增加使pH和文石饱和度均增大,温度的降低使pH增大而使文石饱和度减小。总体而言,太阳辐射管理地球工程可以降低全球温度,但无法减缓海洋酸化。

关键词: 地球工程, 太阳辐射管理, 海洋酸化, 气候变化, 地球系统模拟

Abstract:

To have a more complete evaluation of the solar geoengineering effect on global climate, it is of great importance to examine the effects of geoengineering on ocean acidification. In this study the UVic Earth System Model was used to simulate the effects of solar geoengineering on sea surface pH and aragonite (a metastable form of calcium carbonate) saturation (Ω). We run the UVic model from pre-industrial to the year 2100 under RCP8.5 scenario, and quantified the effects of individual environment factors on ocean acidification. The simulations show that by the year 2100, relative to pre-industrial levels, global mean sea surface pH would decrease by 0.43 and Ω state will decrease by 1.77. Relative to the RCP8.5 scenario without geoengineering, by the year 2100, solar geoengineering would increase sea surface pH by 0.003, but decrease Ω by 0.16. Relative to the RCP8.5 scenario without geoengineering, geoengineering-induced increase of dissolved inorganic carbon would decrease pH and Ω, but the increase of alkalinity would increase pH and Ω. Geoengineering-induced decrease of temperature would increase pH but decrease Ω. The net effect of solar geoengineering on pH and Ω is small. Our study indicates that solar geoengineering could cool the earth but fails to mitigate ocean acidification.

Key words: Geoengineering, Solar radiation management, Ocean acidification, Climate change, Earth system simulation

温作龙,姜玖,曹龙. 太阳辐射管理地球工程对海洋酸化影响的模拟研究[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2019, 15(1): 41-53.

Zuo-Long WEN,Jiu JIANG,Long CAO. Simulated effects of solar geoengineering on ocean acidification[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(1): 41-53.

图/表 10

图1 通过碳酸盐化学OCMIP计算程序得到的以各环境因子为自变量、pH和Ω为因变量的函数图

Fig. 1 pH and aragonite saturation state (Ω), as a function of environment factors based on the OCMIP project

图2 模式模拟的1990—1999年平均和GLODAP数据计算的各海洋碳酸盐变量随纬度-海洋深度的分布

Fig. 2 Latitude-depth distribution of ocean carbonate chemistry variables with UVic model simulation (1990-1999) and GLODAP observation

图3 Hist+RCP8.5模拟试验和SRM模拟试验1800—2100年的结果注：黑色虚线表示地球工程开始实施的年份（2020年)。

Fig. 3 Time series of variables in Hist+RCP8.5 and SRM simulated experiments

图4 两种试验模拟的2090—2100年平均结果及其差值

Fig. 4 Simulated results of two experiments as well as their difference in the periods 2090-2100

图5 两种试验模拟的2090—2100年平均相对于与1800—1810年平均结果各变量的变化及两种试验2090—2100年平均结果的差值

Fig. 5 Simulated results of two experiments in the periods 2090-2100 relative to the periods 1800-1810, as well as their difference in the periods 2090-2100

表1 模式模拟的1800—1810年平均与2090—2100年平均的海表溶解无机碳、碱度、温度、盐度的值

Table 1 Model simulated results in the periods 1810-1810 and 2090-2100

图6 由地球工程（SRM模拟实验）引起的海表各环境因子单独变化（相对于Hist+RCP8.5模拟试验）对pH和Ω的海表平均值的影响随时间的变化

Fig. 6 Time series of geoengineering-induced effects (SRM simulated experiment) of each single environment factor change on pH and Ω (relative to Hist+RCP8.5 simulated experiment)

表2 2090—2100年平均的由地球工程引起的海表各环境因子单独变化（相对于Hist+RCP8.5模拟试验）对pH和Ω的海表平均值的影响及其百分比（括号内数字),以及各环境因子同时变化的协同影响

Table 2 Geoengineering-induced effects and their percentages of each single environment factor change on pH and Ω in the periods 2090-2100, and the effects of all environment factors changing simultaneously

图7 2090—2100年平均的由地球工程（SRM模拟实验）引起的海表各环境因子单独变化（相对于Hist+RCP8.5模拟试验）对海表pH和Ω空间分布的影响

Fig. 7 Geoengineering-induced effects (SRM simulated experiment) of each single environment factor change on pH and Ω (relative to Hist+RCP8.5 simulated experiment) in the period 2090-2100

图8 Hist+RCP8.5模拟试验和SRM模拟试验的1800—2100年北大西洋深水生成强度（NADW）随时间的变化

Fig. 8 Time series of NADW in Hist+RCP8.5 and SRM simulated experiments

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