气候变化研究进展 ›› 2017, Vol. 13 ›› Issue (4): 299-305.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2016.201

• 温升1.5℃: 影响与应对专栏 •    下一篇

1.5℃全球温控目标浅析

张永香,黄 磊,周波涛,徐 影,巢清尘   

  1. 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
  • 收稿日期:2016-10-08 修回日期:2016-12-30 出版日期:2017-07-30 发布日期:2017-07-30
  • 通讯作者: 张永香 E-mail:zhangyx@cma.gov.cn
  • 基金资助:

    国家自然科学基金

The Preliminary Interpretation on 1.5℃ Global Temperature Goal

Zhang Yongxiang, Huang Lei, Zhou Botao, Xu Ying, Chao Qingchen   

  1. National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
  • Received:2016-10-08 Revised:2016-12-30 Online:2017-07-30 Published:2017-07-30

摘要:

《巴黎协定》将努力控制全球温升到2100年不超过工业化前的1.5℃确定为全球温控目标之一。继2℃目标后,1.5℃也被作为应对气候变化的全球温控目标之一。目前科学界对于1.5℃目标的研究还十分有限。已有的科学研究表明,尽管区域差异很大,将全球温升控制在1.5℃范围内地球各系统要承受的气候风险可能要低于2℃。相比于2℃目标,1.5℃目标对全球减缓行动的要求更为严苛。尽管在《巴黎协定》中各缔约方承诺了各自到2030(2025)年的减排目标,但相对于实现1.5℃目标而言仍有很大的差距。多家研究机构的模拟结果表明,如完全执行当前国家自主决定贡献(NDC),到21世纪末全球温升范围为2.2~3.4℃。截至2025年,实现当前NDC的减排承诺后,2℃温升目标下全球仍有467 Gt CO2(万亿t CO2当量)的排放空间,1.5℃温升目标下全球仅剩17 Gt CO2。到2030年,基于NDC的排放已经超过了1.5℃目标的排放量。按当前的路径来看,若想实现将全球温升控制在1.5℃的范围内,全球不仅需要立即行动并采取强有力的减排、脱碳和固碳措施,在2100年前,还必须实现负排放才有可能实现这一目标。尽管当前的科学研究仍存在很大的不确定性,但1.5℃目标已是全球努力应对气候变化的方向,也是开启未来世界低碳可持续发展的重要标志。

关键词: 气候变化长期目标, 1.5℃目标, 减缓行动, 低碳发展

Abstract:

The Paris Agreement has set one of its targets that to pursue efforts to limit the temperature increase to 1.5℃ above pre-industrial levels (in short 1.5℃ target). The studies on 1.5℃ target are limited currently. According to existing researches, the 1.5℃ target, comparing with 2℃ long-term temperature goal, probably could reduce the climate risk for the earth systems but need more stringent global mitigation efforts. Although the Parties have committed their national determined contributions (NDC) till 2030 (2025), there is still a big gap with respect to the 1.5℃ target. Corresponding model simulations have shown that the global temperature rise by the end of the 21st century is in the range of 2.2-3.4℃ if the current NDC is fully implemented. There is still 467 Gt CO2 left under the 2℃ scenario, 17 Gt CO2 remaining under the 1.5℃ scenario. By 2030, the NDC-based emissions will have exceeded the target emissions of 1.5℃. According to the current pathway, the 1.5℃ target requests not only an immediate mitigation action and other actions related to decarbonization and carbon sequestration measures, but also a negative emission before 2100. Regardless the uncertainty from scientific communities, 1.5℃ target is more than just a direction for tackling climate change, but start an important way for the future global low-carbon sustainable development.

Key words: climate change long-term goal, 1.5℃ target, mitigation action, low carbon development

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