气候变化及人类活动对西北干旱区水资源影响研究综述

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.004

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

本文回顾了西北干旱区气候变化事实及其对水资源影响的最新研究进展，从气候变化和人类活动两个角度综述了水资源变化的原因，以及未来西北干旱区水资源变化与适应对策。研究表明：1961年以来西北干旱区呈现明显暖湿化趋势，其中冬季增温最快，夏季降水增加速率最大。伊利河谷、塔城等地区增温趋势最大，北疆降水量增加最多。受气候变暖导致冰雪快速消融和山区降水增加的影响，西北干旱区西部河流黑河、疏勒河、塔里木河出山口径流量显著增加。由于东部河流石羊河径流的补给主要靠降水，降水的减少导致径流呈现下降趋势。不合理人类活动造成石羊河、黑河和开都河中下游径流减少。本文提出了西北干旱区亟待深入研究的任务：极端天气气候事件的变化规律及其对水资源影响；未来气候变化和水资源的预估；气候变化归因研究；气候变化-社会经济活动一体化适应策略选择；水资源科学合理定量分配等。

关键词: 西北干旱区, 气候变化, 水资源, 人类活动, 适应

Abstract:

This study reviews the latest progress in research on climate change and water resources in the arid area of Northwest China, analyzes the cause of water resource changes within the region from the perspective of climate change and human activities, and summarizes future likely changes in water resources and associated adaptation strategies. The research shows that the climate in the region has experienced warming and wetting with the most significant warming in winter and the highest increase of precipitation in summer since 1961. Areas with the most significant warming trends include the Qaidam Basin, the Yili River Valley, Tacheng city. Spatially, the increasing trend in precipitation becomes increasingly significant from the southeast to the northwest and northern Xinjiang experienced the highest increase. Studies have shown a decrease in headwater of Shiyang River because runoff is mainly based on precipitation with a decrease trend. But an increase in western rivers was observed such Tarim River and Shule River as well as Heihe River due to rapid glacier shrinkage and snowmelt as well as precipitation increase in mountain area. Meanwhile unreasonable human activities resulted in decrease of runoff in the middle and lower reaches of Haihe River, Shiyang River and Kaidu River. Finally, recommendations for future studies are suggested that include characteristics of changes in extreme weather events and their impacts on water resources, projections of future climate and water resource changes, climate change attribution, the selection of adaptation strategies relating to climate change and social economic activities, and use of scientific methods to quantitatively determine water resource allocation.

Key words: arid region of Northwest China, climate change, water resource, human activity, adaption strategy

王玉洁, 秦大河. 气候变化及人类活动对西北干旱区水资源影响研究综述[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2017, 13(5): 483-493.

Wang Yujie, Qin Dahe. Influence of Climate Change and Human Activity on Water Resources in Arid Region of Northwest China:An Overview[J]. Climate Change Research, 2017, 13(5): 483-493.

参考文献

[1] 张林源, 苏桂武. 中国西北干旱区的成因、特征与环境优化[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 1993, 7(Z1):1-10
[2] 张强, 胡隐樵, 曹晓彦, 等. 论西北干旱气候的若干问题[J]. 中国沙漠, 2000, 20(4):13-18
[3] 刘潮海, 康尔泗, 刘时银, 等. 西北干旱区冰川变化及其径流效应研究[J]. 中国科学:地球科学, 1999, 29(S1):55-62
[4] 张九天, 何霄嘉, 上官冬辉, 等. 冰川加剧消融对我国西北干旱区的影响及其适应对策[J]. 冰川冻土, 2012, 34(4):848-854
[5] Wu Z, Zhang H, Krause C M, et al. Climate change and human activities:a case study in Xinjiang, China[J]. Climatic Change, 2010, 99(3-4):457-472
[6] Li B, Chen Y, Li W, et al. Spatial and temporal variations of temperature and precipitation in the arid region of Northwest China from 1960-2010[J]. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 2013, 22(2):362-371
[7] 姚俊强, 杨青, 陈亚宁, 等. 西北干旱区气候变化及其对生态环境影响[J]. 生态学杂志, 2013, 32(5):1283-1291
[8] 陈亚宁, 李稚, 范煜婷, 等. 西北干旱区气候变化对水文水资源影响研究进展[J]. 地理学报, 2014, 69(9):1295-1304
[9] Chen Y, Li Z, Fan Y, et al. Progress and prospects of climate change impacts on hydrology in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Environmental Research, 2015, 139:11-19
[10] 张晶晶, 陈爽, 赵昕奕. 近50年中国气温变化的区域差异及其与全球气候变化的联系[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2006, 20(4):1-6
[11] 任朝霞, 杨达源. 近50a西北干旱区气温分区及其变化趋势研究[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2006, 20(1):99-103
[12] Li B, Chen Y, Shi X, et al. Temperature and precipitation changes in different environments in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013, 112(3-4):589-596
[13] IPCC. Climate change 2013:the physical science basis[M]. Cambridge:Cambridge University Press, 2013
[14] Li B, Chen Y, Shi X. Why does the temperature rise faster in the arid region of Northwest China?[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2012, 117(D16):16115
[15] 任朝霞, 杨达源. 近50a西北干旱区气候变化趋势研究[J]. 第四纪研究, 2006, 26(2):299-300
[16] 苏君, 马志军. 西北干旱区降水变化的时空分布特征研究[J]. 水利科技与经济, 2016, 22(4):56-59
[17] Li B, Chen Y, Chen Z, et al. Why does precipitation in Northwest China show a significant increasing trend from 1960 to 2010?[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2016, 167:275-284
[18] Wang H, Chen Y, Chen Z. Spatial distribution and temporal trends of mean precipitation and extremes in the arid region, northwest of China, during 1960-2010[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2013, 27(12):1807-1818
[19] Deng H, Chen Y, Shi X, et al. Dynamics of temperature and precipitation extremes and their spatial variation in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2014, 138:346-355
[20] 王维霞, 王秀君, 姜逢清, 等.开都河流域上下游过去50a气温降水变化特征分析[J]. 干旱区地理, 2012, 32(5):746-753
[21] 孟秀敬, 张士锋, 张永勇. 河西走廊57年来气温和降水时空变化特征[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11):1482-1492
[22] Chen Y, Takeuchi K, Xu C, et al. Regional climate change and its effects on river runoff in the Tarim Basin, China[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2006, 20(10):2207-2216
[23] 施雅风, 沈永平, 胡汝骥. 西北气候由暖干向暖湿转型的信号、影响和前景初步探讨[J]. 冰川冻土, 2002, 24(3):219-226
[24] 宋连春, 张存杰. 20世纪西北地区降水量变化特征[J]. 冰川冻土, 2003, 25(2):143-148
[25] 胡汝骥, 马虹, 樊自立, 等.近期新疆湖泊变化所示的气候趋势[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2002, 16(1):20-27
[26] 任朝霞, 杨达源. 西北干旱区近50年气候变化特征与趋势[J]. 地球科学与环境学报, 2007, 29(1):99-102
[27] 徐利岗, 周宏飞, 杜历, 等. 1951-2008年中国西北干旱区降水时空变化及其趋势[J]. 中国沙漠, 2015, 35(3):724-734
[28] Han X, Xue H, Zhao C, et al. The roles of convective and stratiform precipitation in the observed precipitation trends in Northwest China during 1961-2000[J]. Atmospheric Research, 2016, 169:139-146
[29] 黄建平, 冉津江, 季明霞. 中国干旱半干旱区洪涝灾害的初步分析[J]. 气象学报, 2014, 72(6):1096-1107
[30] 陈冬冬, 戴永久. 近五十年我国西北地区降水强度变化特征[J]. 大气科学, 2009, 33(5):923-935
[31] 师银芳, 赵军. 中国西北干旱区极端气温的时空变化特征[J]. 兰州大学学报:自然科学版, 2014, 50(4):529-533
[32] Wang H, Chen Y, Chen Z, et al. Changes in annual and seasonal temperature extremes in the arid region of China, 1960-2010[J]. Natural Hazards, 2013, 65(3):1913-1930
[33] 汪宝龙, 张明军, 魏军林, 等.西北地区近50a气温和降水极端事件的变化特征[J]. 自然资源学报, 2012, 27(10):1720-1733
[34] Zhang Y, Jiang F, Wei W, et al. Changes in annual maximum number of consecutive dry and wet days during 1961-2008 in Xinjiang, China[J]. Natural Hazards and Earth System Sciences, 2012, 12(5):1353-1365
[35] Wang S, Jiang F, Ding Y. Spatial coherence of variations in seasonal extreme precipitation events over northwest arid region, China[J]. International Journal of Climatology, 2015, 35(15):4642-4654
[36] Cheng A, Feng Q, Fu G, et al. Recent changes in precipitation extremes in the Heihe River basin, Northwest China[J]. Advances in Atmospheric Sciences, 2015, 32(10):1391-1406
[37] 张强, 赵映东, 张存杰, 等.西北干旱区水循环与水资源问题[J]. 干旱气象, 2008, 26(2):1-8
[38] 陈亚宁. 气候变化对西北干旱区水循环影响机理与水资源安全研究[J]. 中国基础科学, 2015, 17(2):15-21
[39] Chen Y, Li B, Li Z, et al. Water resource formation and conversion and water security in arid region of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Geographical Sciences, 2016, 26(7):939-952
[40] Oerlemans J, Anderson B, Hubbard A, et al. Modelling the response of glaciers to climate warming[J]. Climate Dynamics, 1998, 14(4):267-274
[41] Shi Y F, Liu S Y. Estimation on the response of glaciers in China to the global warming in the 21st century[J]. Chinese Science Bulletin, 2000, 45(7):668-672
[42] 刘时银, 晓军, 郭万钦, 等. 基于第二次冰川编目的中国冰川现状[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(1):3-16
[43] 孙美平, 刘时银, 姚晓军, 等.近50年来祁连山冰川变化:基于中国第一、二次冰川编目数据[J]. 地理学报, 2015, 70(9):1402-1414
[44] 陈辉, 李忠勤, 王璞玉, 等.近年来祁连山中段冰川变化[J]. 干旱区研究, 2013, 30(4):588-593
[45] 别强, 强文丽, 王超, 等. 1960-2010年黑河流域冰川变化的遥感监测[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(3):574-582
[46] 李忠勤, 沈永平, 王飞腾, 等. 天山乌鲁木齐河源1号冰川消融对气候变化的响应[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2007, 3(3):132-137
[47] Sun M, Li Z, Yao X, et al. Rapid shrinkage and hydrological response of a typical continental glacier in the arid region of Northwest China:taking Urumqi Glacier No.1 as an example[J]. Ecohydrology, 2013, 6(6):909-916
[48] 何毅, 杨太保. 博格达峰地区气候变化特征及其对冰川变化的影响[J]. 地理科学进展, 2014, 33(10):1387-1396
[49] Yu X, Lu C. Alpine glacier change in the eastern Altun mountains of Northwest China during 1972-2010[J]. Plos One, 2015, 10(2):e0117262
[50] Qin J, Liu Y, Chang Y, et al. Regional runoff variation and its response to climate change and human activities in Northwest China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016, 75(20):1366
[51] Li B, Chen Y, Xiong H. Quantitatively evaluating the effects of climate factors on runoff change for Aksu River in northwestern China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 123(1-2):97-105
[52] Bai L, Chen Z, Xu J, et al. Multi-scale response of runoff to climate fluctuation in the headwater region of Kaidu River in Xinjiang of China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2016, 125(3-4):703-712
[53] 姜龙. 玛纳斯河流域上游气候及径流变化特征分析[J]. 新疆环境保护, 2016, 38(1):44-48
[54] 张庆. 博尔塔拉河河源气温与径流量变化趋势研究[J]. 水利科技与经济, 2014, 20(7):58-60
[55] Li Z, Chen Y, Li W, et al. Plausible impact of climate change on water resources in the arid region of Northwest China[J]. Fresenius Environmental Bulletin, 2013, 22(9A):2789-2797
[56] 邓振镛, 张强, 王润元, 等.河西内陆河径流对气候变化的响应及其流域适应性水资源管理研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2013, 35(5):1267-1275
[57] Xue J, Gui D. Linear and nonlinear characteristics of the runoff response to regional climate factors in the Qira River basin, Xinjiang, Northwest China[J]. Peerj, 2015, 3(3):e1104
[58] 徐浩杰, 杨太保, 张晓晓. 近50年来疏勒河上游气候变化及其对地表径流的影响[J]. 水土保持通报, 2014, 34(4):39-45
[59] 郝振纯, 袁伟, 陈新美, 等. 黑河上游水文气象要素变化规律分析[J]. 水电能源科学, 2013, 31(7):5-8
[60] 周俊菊, 师玮, 石培基, 等. 石羊河上游1956-2009年出山径流量特征及其对气候变化的响应[J]. 兰州大学学报:自然科学版, 2012, 48(1):27-34
[61] 王宝鉴, 宋连春, 张强, 等.石羊河流域水资源对气候变暖的响应及对生态环境的影响[J]. 地球科学进展, 2007, 22(7):730-737
[62] 王有权. 河西走廊疏勒河流域地下水资源开发利用的环境效应[J]. 地下水, 2012, 34(2):48-50
[63] 文星, 王涛, 薛娴, 等. 1975-2010年石羊河流域绿洲时空演变研究[J]. 中国沙漠, 2013, 33(2):478-485
[64] Zhu Y, Chen Y, Ren L, et al. Ecosystem restoration and conservation in the arid inland river basins of Northwest China:problems and strategies[J]. Ecological Engineering, 2016, 94:629-637
[65] 张强, 孙昭萱, 陈丽华, 等. 祁连山空中云水资源开发利用研究综述[J]. 干旱区地理, 2009, 32(3):381-390
[66] 张强, 张杰, 孙国武, 等. 祁连山山区空中水汽分布特征研究[J]. 气象学报, 2007, 65(4):633-643
[67] 张强, 俞亚勋, 张杰. 祁连山与河西内陆河流域绿洲的大气水循环特征研究[J]. 冰川冻土, 2008, 30(6):907-913
[68] 柳景峰, 张勃. 西北干旱区近50年气候变化对出山径流的影响分析:以黑河流域为例[J]. 干旱区资源与环境, 2007, 21(8):58-63
[69] 蓝永超, 胡兴林, 肖生春, 等. 近50年疏勒河流域山区的气候变化及其对出山径流的影响[J]. 高原气象, 2012, 31(6):1636-1644
[70] Ma Z, Kang S, Zhang L, et al. Analysis of impacts of climate variability and human activity on streamflow for a river basin in arid region of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Hydrology, 2008, 352(3-4):239-249
[71] 何旭强, 张勃, 孙力炜, 等. 气候变化和人类活动对黑河上中游径流量变化的贡献率[J]. 生态学杂志, 2012, 31(11):2884-2890
[72] 周俊菊, 雷莉, 石培基, 等. 石羊河流域河川径流对气候与土地利用变化的响应[J]. 生态学报, 2015, 35(11):3788-3796
[73] Chen Z, Chen Y, Li B. Quantifying the effects of climate variability and human activities on runoff for Kaidu River basin in arid region of Northwest China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2013, 111(3-4):537-545
[74] 洪波, 海米提·依米提, 马蓉, 等. 气候变化和人类活动对开都河径流的影响[J]. 安徽农业科学, 2015, 43(16):201-204
[75] Dong W, Cui B, Liu Z, et al. Relative effects of human activities and climate change on the river runoff in an arid basin in Northwest China[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2014, 28(18):4854-4864
[76] 李宝富, 陈亚宁, 陈忠升, 等.西北干旱区山区融雪期气候变化对径流量的影响[J]. 地理学报, 2012, 67(11):1461-1470
[77] Ma L, Wu J, Liu W, et al. Distinguishing between anthropogenic and climatic impacts on lake size:a modeling approach using data from Ebinur Lake in arid Northwest China[J]. Journal of Limnology, 2014, 73(2):350-357
[78] 周驰, 何隆华, 杨娜. 人类活动和气候变化对艾比湖湖泊面积的影响[J]. 海洋地质与第四纪地质, 2010, 30(2):121-126
[79] Guo M, Wu W, Zhou X, et al. Investigation of the dramatic changes in lake level of the Bosten Lake in northwestern China[J]. Theoretical and Applied Climatology, 2015, 119(1-2):341-351
[80] Zhou H, Chen Y, Perry L, et al. Implications of climate change for water management of an arid inland lake in Northwest China[J]. Lake and Reservoir Management, 2015, 31(3):202-213
[81] 郭铌, 梁芸, 王小平. 黑河调水对下游生态环境恢复效果的卫星遥感监测分析[J]. 中国沙漠, 2004, 24(6):740-744
[82] 年雁云, 王晓利, 蔡迪花. 黑河流域下游额济纳三角洲气候及生态环境变化分析[J]. 干旱气象, 2015, 33(1):28-37
[83] 管新建, 齐雪艳, 吴泽宁, 等. 东居延海生态系统服务功能价值的能值分析[J]. 水土保持研究, 2012, 19(5):253-261
[84] 施雅风, 张祥松. 气候变化对西北干旱区地表水资源的影响和未来趋势[J]. 中国科学:化学生命科学地学, 1995, 25(9):968-977
[85] Wan L, Xia J, Hong S, et al. Decadal climate variability and vulnerability of water resources in arid regions of Northwest China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2015, 73(10):6539-6552
[86] Fang G, Yang J, Chen Y, et al. Climate change impact on the hydrology of a typical watershed in the Tianshan Mountains[J]. Advances in Meteorology, 2015:1-10
[87] Xu C, Zhao J, Deng H, et al. Scenario-based runoff prediction for the Kaidu River basin of the Tianshan Mountains, Northwest China[J]. Environmental Earth Sciences, 2016, 75(15):1126
[88] Zhang Y, Fu G, Sun B, et al. Simulation and classification of the impacts of projected climate change on flow regimes in the arid Hexi Corridor of Northwest China[J]. Journal of Geophysical Research Atmospheres, 2015, 120(15):7429-7453
[89] Wang Z, Ficklin D L, Zhang Y, et al. Impact of climate change on streamflow in the arid Shiyang River basin of Northwest China[J]. Hydrological Processes, 2012, 26(18):2733-2744
[90] 陈仁升, 康尔泗, 张济世. 应用GRNN神经网络模型计算西北干旱区内陆河流域出山径流[J]. 水科学进展, 2002, 13(1):87-92
[91] Zhang A, Liu W, Yin Z, et al. How will climate change affect the water availability in the Heihe River basin, Northwest China?[J]. Journal of Hydrometeorology, 2016, 17(5):1517-1542
[92] 程国栋, 王根绪. 中国西北地区的干旱与旱灾:变化趋势与对策[J]. 地学前缘, 2006, 13(1):3-14
[93] 孙兰东, 张富. 黑河流域生态系统的气候脆弱性分析[J]. 人民黄河, 2006, 28(3):10-12
[94] 陈超, 潘学标, 张立祯, 等.气候变化对石羊河流域棉花生产和耗水的影响[J]. 农业工程学报, 2011, 27(1):57-65
[95] 孙希科, 周立华, 陈勇. 疏勒河流域气候变化情景下的适应对策[J]. 中国沙漠, 2011, 31(5):1316-1322
[96] 巢清尘, 刘昌义, 袁佳双. 气候变化影响和适应认知的演进及对气候政策的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2014, 10(3):167-174
[97] Guo J, Gong P. Forest cover dynamics from Landsat time-series data over Yan'an city on the Loess Plateau during the Grain for Green Project[J]. International Journal of Remote Sensing, 2016, 37(17):4101-4118