气候变化研究进展 ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (1): 54-61.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.074

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

基于省区协调发展的GDP预测模型

张强1,黎楠1,陈文颖1,单葆国2,张成龙2,尹硕3   

  1. 1 清华大学能源环境经济研究所,北京 100084
    2 国网能源研究院有限公司,北京 102209
    3 国网河南省电力公司经济技术研究院,郑州 450052
  • 收稿日期:2018-05-21 修回日期:2018-09-02 出版日期:2019-01-30 发布日期:2019-01-30
  • 作者简介:张强,男,博士研究生;
  • 基金资助:
    国家电网公司科技项目(5217L017000N);科技部课题“减缓气候变化评估”

Provincial GDP projection model based on balanced development

Qiang ZHANG1,Nan LI1,Wen-Ying CHEN1,Bao-Guo SHAN2,Cheng-Long ZHANG2,Shuo YIN3   

  1. 1 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    2 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
    3 Economics &Technology Research Institute, State Grid Henan Electric Power Company, Zhengzhou 450052, China;
  • Received:2018-05-21 Revised:2018-09-02 Online:2019-01-30 Published:2019-01-30

摘要:

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数与自回归移动平均模型(ARIMA)构建出一个GDP综合预测模型,并且考虑十九大全面建成小康社会与实现共同富裕的精神与国家关于技术、资本、劳动力等方面的区域平衡发展战略调整模型的参数,计算了2016—2050年中国分省的GDP总量与人均GDP,进一步通过计算省区间人均GDP的基尼系数来分析省区协调发展的水平。研究结果表明,在考虑省区协调发展时,各省区在2016—2050年间的GDP总量与人均GDP的差距逐渐缩小,省区间人均GDP的基尼系数将从2015年的0.219下降到2030年的0.176和2050年的0.137,未来区域间发展不均衡的态势在实现经济稳步增长同时可以得到缓解。

关键词: GDP, 省区协调发展, 基尼系数, 柯布-道格拉斯函数, ARIMA模型

Abstract:

In this paper, a GDP projection model was constructed based on the Cobb-Douglas production function and the Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model. Under the consideration of balanced development the Gini coefficient of provincial GDP per capita was used to measure the degree of development balance. This model projects Chinese provincial GDP and GDP per capita from 2016 to 2050. Based on the balanced development from technology, labor, and capital. The projection results show that from 2016 to 2050, the gap between the GDP and GDP per capita in each province will shrink and the Gini coefficient will decline. In this projection, the Gini coefficient will decrease from 0.219 in 2015 to 0.176 in 2030 and then to 0.137 in 2050. The results also show that development of each province will tend to be balanced in the future.

Key words: GDP, Provincial balanced development, Gini coefficient, Cobb-Douglas function, ARIMA (Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average) model

京ICP备11008704号-4
版权所有 © 《气候变化研究进展》编辑部
地址:北京市海淀区中关村南大街46号 邮编:100081 电话/传真:(010)58995171 E-mail:accr@cma.gov.cn
本系统由北京玛格泰克科技发展有限公司设计开发 技术支持:support@magtech.com.cn