基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.161

气候变化研究进展

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基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估

秦年秀^1,2,李雅姝¹,汪军能^1,2,龚馨怡¹,杨心怡¹,姜彤³

1 南宁师范大学地理科学与规划学院，南宁530001；
2 北部湾环境演变与资源利用教育部重点实验室，南宁530001；
3 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院，南京210044

收稿日期:2025-07-11 修回日期:2025-09-20 出版日期:2025-12-23 发布日期:2025-12-23
通讯作者: 汪军能
基金资助:
广西重点研发计划项目：气候变化对广西典型地区的影响和风险评估技术研究及应用示范;广西自然科学基金项目“广西西江流域骤发干旱多尺度时空特征与演变机理研究”

Evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation events and socio-economic exposure estimation in the Pearl River basin, China

QIN Nian-Xiu^{1, 2}, LI Ya-Shu¹, WANG Jun-Neng^{1, 2}, GONG Xin-Yi¹, YANG Xin-Yi¹, JIANG Tong³

1 School of Geography Science and Planning, Nanning Normal University, Nanning 530001, China;
2 Key Laboratory of Environmental Evolution and Resource Utilization in Beibu Gulf, Nanning 530001, China;
3 School of Geographical Science/Institute of Disaster Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China

Received:2025-07-11 Revised:2025-09-20 Online:2025-12-23 Published:2025-12-23
Contact: Junneng Wang
Supported by:
Guangxi Key R&D Program Project: "Research and Application Demonstration of Impact and Risk Assessment Technologies for Climate Change on Typical Regions of Guangxi;Guangxi Natural Science Foundation Project: "Study on Multi-scale Spatiotemporal Characteristics and Evolution Mechanisms of Flash Droughts in the Xijiang River Basin of Guangxi"

摘要/Abstract

摘要： 旱涝急转作为一种极端复合事件，对自然与社会系统带来的影响远大于单一的干旱或洪涝事件。基于CMIP6数据与人口、GDP数据预估了3种SSP情景下珠江流域2021—2100年旱涝急转事件演变趋势及人口、GDP暴露度变化。结果表明：1962—2020年旱涝急转事件呈现不显著上升趋势；未来涝转旱发生频次显著高于旱转涝；旱转涝随排放情景升高发生频次减少，涝转旱在高排放情景下发生频次最高；旱转涝除SSP1-2.6远期外，其余情景与时期较基准期频率、强度均呈下降趋势；涝转旱在3种情景下较基准期频率均呈近期降低、远期上升趋势。未来在3种情景下，珠江流域旱转涝人口暴露度在时间上呈现近期分化、远期共增趋势，GDP暴露度近期远期均呈上升趋势，空间上两类暴露度上升的区域主要集中在珠三角地区；涝转旱人口暴露度呈近期降低、远期上升趋势，GDP暴露度呈近期分化、远期共增趋势，空间上两类暴露度上升的区域均从流域东部逐渐向中西部蔓延。

关键词: 珠江流域, CMIP6, 共享社会经济路径（SSP）, 旱涝急转, 暴露度

Abstract: Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA), as an extreme compound event, exerts far greater impacts on natural and social systems than individual drought or flood events. Based on CMIP6 data, population data, and GDP data, this study projected the evolutionary trends of DFAA and changes in population and GDP exposure in the Pearl River basin from 2021 to 2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results are as follows. The frequency of DFAA events exhibited a non-significant upward trend from 1962 to 2020. In the future, the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation will be significantly higher than that of drought-to-flood alternation. The frequency of drought-to-flood alternation will decrease with the increase in emissions, while the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation will be the highest under high-emission scenarios. Except for the long-term period (2061?2100) under SSP1-2.6, both the frequency and intensity of drought-to-flood alternation show a decreasing trend compared to the baseline period. In the near-term period (2021?2060), the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation under the three SSPs is lower than that in the baseline period, while it rises in the long-term period. Under three SSPs, the population exposure to drought-to-flood alternation in the Pearl River basin presents a temporal trend of “differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period”, with GDP exposure showing an overall upward trend. Spatially, such exposure is mainly distributed in the Pearl River Delta region. The population exposure to flood-to-drought alternation decreases in the near-term period compared to the baseline period but increases in the long-term period. The GDP exposure to flood-to-drought alternation also follows a trend of “differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period”, and spatially, it gradually spreads from the downstream to the midstream and upstream regions.

Key words: Pearl River basin, CMIP6, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), Drought-flood abrupt alternation, Exposure

中图分类号:

p954

秦年秀李雅姝汪军能龚馨怡杨心怡姜彤. 基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.161.

QIN Nian-Xiu, LI Ya-Shu, WANG Jun-Neng, GONG Xin-Yi, YANG Xin-Yi, JIANG Tong. Evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation events and socio-economic exposure estimation in the Pearl River basin, China[J]. Climate Change Research, doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.161.

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基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估

Evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation events and socio-economic exposure estimation in the Pearl River basin, China

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