基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2025.161

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

旱涝急转作为一种极端复合事件，对自然与社会系统带来的影响远大于单一的干旱或洪涝事件。基于CMIP6数据与人口、GDP数据预估了3种SSP情景下珠江流域2021—2100年旱涝急转事件演变趋势及人口、GDP暴露度变化。结果表明：1962—2020年旱涝急转事件呈现不显著上升趋势；未来涝转旱发生频次显著高于旱转涝；旱转涝随排放情景升高发生频次减少，涝转旱在高排放情景下发生频次最高；旱转涝除SSP1-2.6远期外，其余情景与时期较基准期频率、强度均呈下降趋势；涝转旱在3种情景下较基准期频率均呈近期降低、远期上升趋势。未来在3种情景下，珠江流域旱转涝人口暴露度在时间上呈现近期分化、远期共增趋势，GDP暴露度近期远期均呈上升趋势，空间上两类暴露度上升的区域主要集中在珠三角地区；涝转旱人口暴露度呈近期降低、远期上升趋势，GDP暴露度呈近期分化、远期共增趋势，空间上两类暴露度上升的区域均从流域东部逐渐向中西部蔓延。

关键词: 珠江流域, CMIP6, 共享社会经济路径（SSP）, 旱涝急转, 暴露度

Abstract:

Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA), as an extreme compound event, exerts far greater impacts on natural and social systems than individual drought or flood events. Based on CMIP6 data, population data, and GDP data, this study projected the evolutionary trends of DFAA and changes in population and GDP exposure in the Pearl River basin from 2021 to 2100 under three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs). The results are as follows. The frequency of DFAA events exhibited a non-significant upward trend from 1962 to 2020. In the future, the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation is significantly higher than that of drought-to-flood alternation. The frequency of drought-to-flood alternation decreases with the increase in emissions, while that of flood-to-drought alternation is the highest under high-emission scenarios. Except for the long-term period (2061-2100) under SSP1-2.6, both the frequency and intensity of drought-to-flood alternation show a decreasing trend compared to the baseline period. In the near-term period (2021-2060), the frequency of flood-to-drought alternation under the three SSPs is lower than that in the baseline period, while it rises in the long-term period. Under three SSPs, the population exposure to drought-to-flood alternation in the Pearl River basin presents a temporal trend of “differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period”, while GDP exposure shows an overall upward trend. Spatially, regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP are mainly concentrated in the Pearl River Delta region. The population exposure to flood-to-drought alternation decreases in the near-term period compared to the baseline period but increases in the long-term period. The GDP exposure to flood-to-drought alternation also follows a trend of “differentiation in the near-term period and common increase in the long-term period”. Spatially, regions with increasing exposure for both population and GDP spread from the eastern part of the basin to the central and western parts.

Key words: Pearl River basin, CMIP6, Shared Socioeconomic Pathway (SSP), Drought-flood abrupt alternation (DFAA), Exposure

秦年秀, 李雅姝, 汪军能, 龚馨怡, 杨心怡, 姜彤. 基于CMIP6的珠江流域旱涝急转事件演变特征及社会经济暴露度预估[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2026, 22(1): 57-69.

QIN Nian-Xiu, LI Ya-Shu, WANG Jun-Neng, GONG Xin-Yi, YANG Xin-Yi, JIANG Tong. Evolution characteristics of drought-flood abrupt alternation events and socio-economic exposure estimation in the Pearl River basin, China[J]. Climate Change Research, 2026, 22(1): 57-69.

图/表 13

图1 研究区域概况图

Fig. 1 Overview of the study area

表1 8个CMIP6模式基本信息

Table 1 Basic information for the eight CMIP6 models

表2 标准化加权平均降水指数（SWAP）旱涝强度分类等级

Table 2 Classification grades of drought-flood intensity in standard weighted average precipitation (SWAP)

图2 8个CMIP6气候模式降水模拟能力评估

Fig. 2 Assessment of precipitation simulation capabilities in 8 CMIP6 climate models

图3 1962—2020年珠江流域旱涝急转事件的时间(a)和空间(b)变化

Fig. 3 Temporal (a) and spatial (b) variations of drought-flood abrupt alternation events in the Pearl River basin during 1962-2020

图4 不同情景下2021—2100年旱涝急转事件总频次

Fig. 4 Total frequency of drought-flood abrupt alternation events during 2021-2100 under different SSPs

图5 不同情景下未来（近期、远期）珠江流域较基准期旱转涝频率和强度变化

Fig. 5 Changes in frequency and intensity of drought to flood in Pearl River basin under different SSPs for the future (near-term and long-term) compared with the baseline period

图6 不同情景下2021—2100年旱转涝(a)与涝转旱(b)事件受灾面积占比注：2020s为2021—2030年，以此类推。

Fig. 6 The proportion of affected areas by drought to flood (a) and flood to drought (b) events during 2021-2100 under different SSPs

图7 珠江流域基准期与未来旱转涝人口和经济暴露度(a)及其较基准期的变化(b)

Fig. 7 Population and economic exposure to drought to flood in the Pearl River basin (baseline period and two future periods) (a) and changes compared with the baseline period (b)

图8 不同情景下未来（近期、远期）珠江流域较基准期旱转涝人口和经济暴露度变化

Fig. 8 Changes in population and economic exposure to drought to flood in Pearl River basin compared with the baseline period under different SSPs for the future (near-term and long-term)

图9 不同情景下未来（近期、远期）珠江流域较基准期涝转旱频率和强度变化

Fig. 9 Changes in frequency and intensity of flood to drought in Pearl River basin compared with the baseline period under different SSPs for the future (near-term and long-term)

图10 珠江流域基准期与未来涝转旱人口和经济暴露度(a)及其较基准期的变化(b)

Fig. 10 Population and economic exposure to flood to drought in the Pearl River basin (baseline period and two future periods) (a) and changes compared with the baseline period (b)

图11 不同情景下未来（近期、远期）珠江流域较基准期涝转旱人口和经济暴露度变化

Fig. 11 Changes in population and economic exposure to flood to drought in Pearl River basin compared with the baseline period under different SSPs for the future (near-term and long-term)

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