Climate Change Research ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (3): 266-274.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2017.235

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Projection of vegetation net primary productivity based on CMIP5 models in Anhui province

Sheng WANG1,Hong-Mei XU2,De-Yan WANG3,A-Wei SONG1,Chun-Feng DUAN1,Dong-Yan HE1   

  1. 1 Anhui Climate Center, Hefei 230031, China
    2 National Climate Center, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
    3 Tianchang Meteorological Beureau of Anhui, Chuzhou 239000, China
  • Received:2017-12-08 Revised:2018-02-12 Online:2018-05-31 Published:2018-06-07


In this paper the impacts of climate change on vegetation net primary productivity (NPP) were estimated in the near term (2018-2030), mid-term (2031-2050), and long term (2051-2099) of the 21st century using a NPP model driven by 5 general circulation models under 3 Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). The results indicated that the simulation effect of multi-model ensemble is better than that of single model, and the model of MIROC-ESM-CHEM has better simulation ability for precipitation through the assessment of climate patterns. The climate of Anhui province will continue to warm in the 21st century, with the northern warming rate will be higher than the south, especially in the RCP8.5 scenario. Precipitation will be increasing, with the southern increasing more than the northern. As the climate tends to be warm and humid, vegetation NPP will increase in the 21st century, and the trend of NPP increase will be not obvious in the near term, but will be significant in the mid-term and long period as compared with baseline, and vegetation NPP could be generally higher in the south region than in the north region. From the perspective of climate change response, there is a significant correlation between NPP and precipitation and mean temperature in Anhui province, and the response to precipitation is more significant.

Key words: CMIP5 models, Vegetation net primary productivity, Climate change, Anhui province

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