Climate system response to solar radiation modification

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.170

Abstract

Abstract:

The IPCC recently released the Sixth Assessment Report (AR6). The Working Group I contribution to the AR6 “Climate change 2021: the physical science basis” addresses the most up-to-date physical understanding of the climate system and climate change. Climate system and the carbon cycle response to solar radiation modification (SRM) is assessed in this report. SRM can be considered as a potential supplement to deep emission reduction to counteract anthropogenic climate change. All assessment of climate effect from SRM are from modeling work. Key AR6 assessment relevant to SRM are: SRM could offset some of the effects from increasing greenhouse gases on global and regional climate (high confidence), but there would be substantial residual or overcompensating climate change at the regional scales and seasonal time scales (virtually certain). It is possible to stabilize multiple large-scale temperature indicators simultaneously by tailoring the deployment strategy of SRM options (medium confidence). A sudden and sustained termination of SRM in a high greenhouse gas emissions scenario would cause rapid climate change (high confidence), but a gradual phase out of SRM combined with emissions reductions and carbon dioxide removal would avoid large rates of changes (medium confidence). The cooling caused by SRM would increase the global land and ocean CO₂ sinks (medium confidence), but SRM would not mitigate ocean acidification (high confidence). Our understanding of climate response to aerosol-based SRM options including stratospheric aerosol injection, marine cloud brightening, and cirrus cloud thinning is limited due to large uncertainties associated with aerosol-cloud-radiation interactions.

Key words: Solar radiation modification (SRM), Climate change, Climate system response, Carbon cycle, Geoengineering

CAO Long. Climate system response to solar radiation modification[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(6): 671-684.

Figures/Tables 2

Fig. 1 Multi-model response per degree global mean cooling in temperature and precipitation in response to CO2 forcing and SRM forcing. (Top row shows the response to a CO2 decrease, calculated as the difference between pre-industrial control simulation and abrupt 4 ×CO2 simulations where the CO2 concentration is quadrupled abruptly from the pre-industrial level (11-model average); second row shows the response to a globally uniform solar reduction, calculated as the difference between GeoMIP experiment G1 and abrupt 4× CO2 (11-model average); third row shows the response to stratospheric sulphate aerosol injection, calculated as the difference between GeoMIP experiment G4 (a continuous injection of 5 Tg SO2 per year at one point on the equator into the lower stratosphere against the RCP4.5 background scenario) and RCP4.5 (6-model average); and bottom row shows the response to marine cloud brightening, calculated as the difference between GeoMIP experiment G4cdnc (increase cloud droplet concentration number in marine low cloud by 50% over the global ocean against RCP4.5 background scenario) and RCP4.5 (8-model average). All differences (average of years 11-50 of simulation) are normalized by the global mean cooling in each scenario, averaged over years 11-50. Diagonal lines represent regions where fewer than 80% of the models agree on the sign of change. The values of correlation represent the spatial correlation of each SRM-induced temperature and precipitation change pattern with the pattern of change caused by a reduction of atmospheric CO2. RMS (root mean square) is calculated based on the fields shown in the maps (normalized by global mean cooling))

Table 1 A summary of the various SRM approaches[1]

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