Climate change impacts on runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.168

Abstract

Abstract:

To assess the impacts of climate change on river runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin, the climate change and its impacts on spatial-temporal trend of annual, seasonality and extremes of runoff were examined using Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model, based on a subset of five global circulation models under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The projected average annual temperature presents a significant upward trend, with an increase of 1.5-5.5℃ by the end of the 21st century relative to the reference period 1986-2005, and the overall precipitation is projected to increase after 2030s, with an increase of 5%-15% by the end of the 21st century. There is considerable spatial variation in the projected changes in annual temperature and precipitation across the upper Yangtze River basin, with the upper sub-basins (Jinsha River and Mintuo River) having a generally warmer and wetter conditions comparing with the whole study area. Changes of climate will result in an increase in the simulated mean annual runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin after 2030s, with an increase of 4%-8% in middle of the 21st century, and 10%-15% increase by the end of the 21st century. Additionally, the intra-annual distribution of monthly runoff is simulated generally more uniform. However, the inter-annual variation of runoff is simulated to increase, which indicates more frequent and severe extreme flood and drought events. With respect to spatial differences in simulated runoff, the sub-basins of Jinsha River and Mintuo River show a relative small change in the annual water availability as well as the inter-annual and intra-annual variability, whereas the sub-basins of Jialing, Wujiang, and mainstream of the upper Yangtze River show a larger increase in water availability and hydrological extremes.

Key words: Climate change, Runoff, upper Yangtze River basin, Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) model

Peng-Cheng QIN,Min LIU,Liang-Min DU,Hong-Mei XU,Lyu-Liu LIU,Chan XIAO. Climate change impacts on runoff in the upper Yangtze River basin[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(4): 405-415.

Figures/Tables 8

Fig. 1 Location of the upper Yangtze River basin and main hydrological stations

Fig. 2 Comparison of monthly simulated and natural flow at each hydrological station during calibration and validation periods

Table 1 Evaluation indices in the calibration and validation periods for each hydrological station

Fig. 3 Projected trends (a, b) and spatial patterns (c, d) in changes of annual temperature and annual precipitation over the upper Yangtze River basin for 2006-2099 based on 5 GCMs under 3 RCPs (relative to 1986-2005, the same below)

Fig. 4 Projected changes in ensemble annual mean flow for each sub-basin of upper Yangtze River under 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

Table 2 Projected percentage changes in ensemble annual mean flow and its standard deviation for each basin of upper Yangtze River under 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

Fig. 5 Projected ensemble mean changes in proportion of monthly runoff in annual runoff for sub-basins of upper Yangtze Riverunder 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

Fig. 6 Projected ensemble mean percentage changes in Q95 and Q5 flow for sub-basins of upper Yangtze River during flood season (a), storage season (b) and dry season (c) under 3 RCPs for 5 GCMs

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