Climate Change Research ›› 2015, Vol. 11 ›› Issue (1): 8-14.doi: 10.3969/j.issn.1673-1719.2015.01.002

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Impact and Assessment of Climate Change on the Water Resources Vulnerability in the Eastern China Monsoon Region

Xia Jun1, 2, Luo Xinping2, Cao Jianting3, Chen Junxu2, 4, Ning Like2, 4, Hong Si2 ,4   

  1. 1 State Key Laboratory of Water Resources and Hydropower Engineering Science, Wuhan University, Wuhan 430072, China; 
    2 Key Laboratory of Water Cycle and Related Land Surface Processes, Institute of Geographic Sciences and Natural Resources Research, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100101, China; 
    3 General Institute of Water Resources and Hydropower Planning and Design, Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing 100120, China; 
    4 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China
  • Received:2014-06-12 Revised:2014-08-31 Online:2015-01-30 Published:2015-01-30

Abstract: Based on the assessment model established on the basis of the sensitivity, adaptability of the water resources system, exposure and droughts risk, from the supply-demand balance view, the water resources vulnerability were evaluated in the eastern China monsoon region. The results show that under current conditions in 2000, nearly 90% of the research region faces moderate or serious vulnerability of water resources, where 75% is moderately or highly vulnerable and 15% is extremely vulnerable. Huanghe, Huaihe, Haihe and Liaohe River basins have the high water resources vulnerability. The future climate change will aggravate the risk of water resources vulnerability. Under different RCP emission scenarios in 2030s, moderately vulnerable areas will significantly expand in the eastern China monsoon region. Extremely vulnerable areas will account for 20% to 25%. Due to the increasing water demand, the water resources vulnerability pattern will not change in North China. And the southeastern river basins will also face possible water crisis in the future.

Key words: water resources vulnerability, climate change, the eastern China monsoon region

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