Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of provincial carbon emissions in China based on modernization

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2022.230

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the data of China’s provincial carbon emission and modernization index from 2000 to 2020, the spatial and temporal evolution characteristics of provincial carbon emission and modernization index were analyzed by traditional statistics and spatial autocorrelation analysis methods, and the influence of modernization level on carbon emission was detected by geographic detector method. The results show that the total carbon emission of 30 provinces in China has shown continuous growth in the past 20 years, while the total carbon emission growth rate has fluctuated down. It is worth noting that total carbon emissions showed negative growth in 2015. From the perspective of different regions, the total carbon emission showed a descending trend from east to west, and the carbon emission gap between east and central regions narrowed. From the perspective of spatial distribution characteristics of carbon emissions, high-value regions of China’s carbon emissions are mainly concentrated in the Bohai Rim region. With 2015 as the turning point, the changes of high-value regions of carbon emissions can be roughly divided into expansion stage and contraction stage. In the spatial correlation analysis, carbon emissions at the provincial scale in China have a significant spatial positive correlation, and the spatial concentration level of carbon emissions at the provincial level shows the characteristics of increasing first and then decreasing gradually. The number of regions with positive spatial correlation is more than that of regions with negative spatial correlation. Carbon emissions of most provinces in China are greatly affected by their neighboring provinces. Hebei is always in the high-high agglomeration area, and Shandong, Henan and Shanxi also show the characteristics of high-high agglomeration for many times. In the aspect of the modernization index research, the time change trend of modernization index is significant, and the spatial distribution evolution characteristics are distinct, which accords with China’s national conditions. From the perspective of influencing factors, transportation, average years of education, informatization level, absolute population size and industrialization level have strong explanatory power for carbon emissions. The combined effect of the two factors on carbon emissions is stronger than that of a single factor. The key interaction factors, including environmental regulation, absolute population size and industrialization level, have strong interaction effects on the spatial differentiation of provincial carbon emissions.

Key words: Modernization, Carbon emissions, Spatial and temporal characteristics, Influencing factors

YANG Hong-Xiong, YANG Guang. Spatial-temporal evolution and influencing factors of provincial carbon emissions in China based on modernization[J]. Climate Change Research, 2023, 19(4): 457-471.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 Indicators of provincial modernization in China

Fig. 1 Change of carbon emission and growth rate in 30 provinces in China from 2000 to 2020

Fig. 2 Carbon emissions of China by region from 2000 to 2020

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of provincial carbon emissions in China from 2000 to 2020

Table 2 Spatial autocorrelation analysis of carbon emissions

Fig. 4 LISA map of China’s provincial carbon emissions from 2000 to 2020

Fig. 5 Time trend of China’s modernization index in 2020

Fig. 6 Spatial distribution of China’s provincial-level modernization indicators in 2020

Table 3 Factor detector results

Table 4 Interaction detector results

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