Climate Change Research ›› 2019, Vol. 15 ›› Issue (6): 649-659.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.060

• Greenhouse Gas Emissions • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Economic development, energy demand and carbon emission prospects of China’s provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan—an application of CMRCGE model

Ji-Feng LI1,A-Lun GU2(),Cheng-Long ZHANG3,Zhen-Qing SUN4   

  1. 1 Institute of Resources and Environmental Policies, Development Research Center of the State Council, Beijing 100010, China
    2 Institute of Energy, Environment and Economy, Tsinghua University, Beijing 100084, China
    3 State Grid Energy Research Institute Co., Ltd., Beijing 102209, China
    4 Tianjin Science and Technology University, Tianjin 300222, China
  • Received:2019-03-20 Revised:2019-04-17 Online:2019-11-30 Published:2019-11-30
  • Contact: A-Lun GU E-mail:gal@tsinghua.edu.cn

Abstract:

Based on the economic development of the provinces and the characteristics of energy demand since the New Normal, this paper focuses on the national regional coordinated development strategy and adopts China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CMRCGE) model to analyze the economic and social development, energy demand and carbon emissions of the provinces during the 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP) period (2021-2025). The main conclusions include: (1) Under the guidance of the regional coorlinated development strategy, it is estimated that by the end of the 14th FYP, 13 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of more than US\$15000, and 16 provinces/municipalities will have a per capita GDP of US\$10000?15000. All provincial economies are expected to achieve steady and rapid development by the end of the 14th FYP. (2) The total energy consumption of the provinces is expected to reach 5.45 billion tce in 2025 (excluding Tibet), and the average annual growth rate is about 1.5%. The growth of energy demand will remain in low speed. The focus of energy demand will gradually shift from the eastern to the middle area, while the proportion of energy use in the western provinces will remain basically stable, which is basically consistent with the economic development stage and regional coordinated development strategy. (3) The annual average carbon intensity (mainly considering energy use carbon emissions) during the 14th FYP will drop approximately 5.4%, with most provinces dropping by more than 4.0%. The trend of a significant decline in carbon intensity in recent years is expected to continue.

Key words: Coordinated development, China Multi-Regional Computable General Equilibrium (CMRCGE) model, 14th Five-Year Plan (FYP), Energy demand, Carbon emissions

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