Climate Change Research ›› 2022, Vol. 18 ›› Issue (2): 177-187.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.104

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Runoff variation trend of Ganjiang River basin under SSP “Double Carbon” path

YANG Chen-Hui, WANG Yan-Jun, SU Bu-Da, PU Yang, WANG Yuan, JIANG Tong()   

  1. Institute for Disaster Risk Management (IDRM)/School of Geographical Science, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
  • Received:2021-06-16 Revised:2021-07-31 Online:2022-03-30 Published:2021-12-23
  • Contact: JIANG Tong


According to the target and the peak time of carbon emissions under SSPs scenarios, SSPs were divided into “double carbon” pathway (SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4, SSP4-6.0) and “high carbon” pathway (SSP3-7.0, SSP5-8.5). The runoff evolution characteristics of Ganjiang River basin were analyzed in two periods of peak carbon dioxide emissions (2028-2032) and carbon neutral (2058-2062) based on the SWAT hydrological model. The results are as follows. (1) Annual mean temperature in the Ganjiang River basin from 1961 to 2017 showed a significant upward trend with a rate of 0.17℃/(10 a), while the precipitation increase slightly with a rate of 17 mm/(10 a). Under the “double carbon” and “high carbon” pathways, the Ganjiang River basin will be in a warm and wet state from 2021 to 2100, with temperature rising and precipitation increasing. (2) In the periods of peak carbon dioxide emissions and carbon neutral, annual runoff shows increasing tendency during “double carbon” pathway. In “double carbon” pathway, monthly runoff shows increasing tendency in all scenarios in flood season, while increasing tendency in SSP1-1.9, SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP4-3.4 and decreasing tendency in SSP4-6.0 in dry season. The intensity of extreme hydrological events under the “double carbon” pathway will be less than under the “high carbon” pathways.

Key words: Shared Socioeconomic Pathways (SSPs), Runoff change, The Ganjiang River basin

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