Projection of China landslide disasters population risk under climate change

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2021.154

Abstract

Abstract:

China is a country in the world where landslides disasters have caused serious casualties. Due to the impact of climate change, the occurrence of extreme precipitation frequency and intensity is projected to be on the rise, which will increase the population risk of landslide disasters. This paper coupled the future precipitation data of multiple models in different RCPs scenarios and the population data in SSPs scenario into an established landslides risk model to quantitatively assess the projected changes in China landslides population risk. The results showed that compared with the baseline period (1970-2000), the high-landslide-hazard zones is projected to increase by 5.5% and 7.9%, respectively under the RCP4.5 and RCP8.5 scenarios in the middle 21st century (2031-2060). The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau has the most significant growth. The population risk of landslides disasters in China shows increasing trend and then decreases under the RCPs-SSPs scenarios. Compared with the RCP4.5/SSP2, the average annually casualty of landslide disasters will increase from 639 to 956 under the RCP8.5/SSP3 in the middle 21st century. In the end of the 21st century (2071-2100), due to the decline of exposure population, the average annual casualties of landslide disasters will decrease to 737. In the future, Zhejiang, Guangdong, Sichuan, Yunnan, and Tibet will always be the provinces with the highest casualties of landslides disaster. Therefore, it is necessary to increase risk prevention measures to reduce the population risk of landslides disaster.

Key words: Climate change, Extreme precipitation, Landslides disaster, Population risk, China

WANG Xia, WANG Ying, LIN Qi-Gen, LI Ning, ZHANG Xin-Ren, ZHOU Xiao-Ying. Projection of China landslide disasters population risk under climate change[J]. Climate Change Research, 2022, 18(2): 166-176.

Figures/Tables 10

Table 1 Main data sources

Table 2 Basic information of 12 climate models used in this study

Fig. 1 Flow chart of population risk assessment of landslides disasters in China under climate change scenarios

Table 3 Comparative analysis of three precipitation data sets

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of landslides hazards in China under climate change scenario. (a) Baseline period (1970-2000), (b) RCP8.5 (2071-2100)

Fig. 3 Spatial distribution of changes in landslides hazard levels at the end of the 21st century compared to the baseline period under the RCP8.5 scenario (multi-model ensemble average). (a) China, (b) Guangdong province, (c) Shanxi province, (d) Tibet

Fig. 4 The average annual casualties (a) and the average annual population vulnerability index (b) of landslides disasters in various provinces during 1950-2018

Fig. 5 The average annual casualties of landslides disasters under climate change scenarios. (Solid line: ensemble average casualties of multi-models; upper and lower limits of shadow range: maximum and minimum casualties of multi-models)

Fig. 6 Provinces in China with 90% of annual average casualties of landslides under RCP4.5/SSP2 scenario (a) and RCP8.5/SSP3 scenario (b)

Fig. 7 Changes in the annual average casualties of landslides disasters in various provinces at the end of the 21st century (RCP4.5/SSP2 scenario)

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