Preliminary assessment on the seasonal hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by BCC_CSM1.1 climate model

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.004

Abstract

Abstract:

This study assesses projection skill of Arctic Oscillation (AO) in initialized decadal experiment with the Beijing Climate Center Climate System Model (BCC_CSM1.1). As compared with the observations and uninitialized historical experiment, the contribution of climate model initialization to predict the seasonal scale AO and its interannual variations is estimated. Results show that the spatial correlation coefficient of AO mode, which depicts the dominant mode of the extra-tropical atmospheric variability, simulated by the decadal experiment is higher than that in the historical experiment. The two groups of experiments can basically reproduce the characteristics of the strongest winter AO index and the weakest summer index. Compared with historical experiment, the correlation coefficient of the monthly and winter AO index is higher in the decadal experiment. In particular, the correlation coefficient of the monthly AO index between the decadal simulations and the observation reached 0.1 significant level. Furthermore, the periodicity of the monthly and spring AO index are achieved only in the decadal experiment. Hence, the hindcast skill of AO is robust when the initial state is initialized by sea surface temperature data.

Key words: BCC_CSM1.1, Climate model, Decadal, Arctic Oscillation (AO), Seasonal hindcast

Li-Quan WU,Qing-Quan LI,Yi-Hui DING,Li-Juan WANG,Xiao-Ge XIN,Min WEI. Preliminary assessment on the seasonal hindcast skill of the Arctic Oscillation with decadal experiment by BCC_CSM1.1 climate model[J]. Climate Change Research, 2019, 15(1): 1-11.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 The leading EOF mode of extra-tropical SLP (sea level pressure) anomalies in the Northern Hemisphere during 1962-2005 in observation (a), decadal experiment (b) and historical experiment (c)

Fig. 2 Seasonal AO indices during 1962-2005 in observation (a-d), decadal experiment (e-h) and historical experiment (i-l) (The four columns from left to right mean winter, spring, summer and autumn. The black lines indicate 9-year running means)

Fig. 3 The moving T-test of seasonal AO indices during 1962-2005 in observation (a-d), decadal experiment (e-h) and historical experiment (i-l) (The four columns from left to right mean winter, spring, summer and autumn. The black bashed lines show significant at the 0.05 level)

Table 1 Linear trend of seasonal AO indices during 1962-2005 in observation, decadal experiment and historical experiment (10a)-1

Table 2 Correlation coefficients of monthly and seasonal AO indices during 1962-2005 between decadal experiment and historical experiments and observations

Table 3 Correlation coefficients between different seasonal AO indices during 1962-2005 from observation and simulations

Table 4 Variance of seasonal AO indices during 1962-2005 from observation, decadal experiment and historical experiment

Fig. 4 Smoothed power spectra for monthly AO index during 1962-2005 derived from observation (a), decadal experiment (b) and historical experiment (c)

Fig. 5 Smoothed power spectra for seasonal AO indices during 1962-2005 derived from observation (a-d), decadal experiment (e-h) and historical experiment (i-l)

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