Climate Change Research ›› 2018, Vol. 14 ›› Issue (6): 583-592.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2018.067

• Impacts of Climate Change • Previous Articles     Next Articles

Study on runoff under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River

Qian-Yu ZHA1,2,Chao GAO2,Ru YANG1,Yue LIU3,Tian RUAN1,Peng LI4   

  1. 1 College of Geography and Tourism, Anhui Normal University, Wuhu 241000, China
    2 Department of Geography & Spatial Information Techniques, Ningbo University, Ningbo 315211, China;
    3 College of Hydrology and Water Resources, Hohai University, Nanjing 210029, China
    4 Zhumadian Hydrology and Water Resources Survey Bureau, Zhumadian 450003, China
  • Received:2018-05-07 Revised:2018-07-10 Online:2018-11-30 Published:2018-11-30
  • Contact: Chao GAO


Based on five global climate model data recommended by The Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Inter-comparison Project (ISI-MIP) and Soil and Water Integrated Model (SWIM), the changes of river discharge under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃ in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River were analyzed. The research results show as follows: the interannual variation of the runoff in the upper reaches of the Huaihe River decreased first and then increased under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃. The annual runoff at the global warming of 1.5℃ will increase by 9.5% relative to the reference period (1986-2005), while the increase under global warming of 2.0℃ is even more pronounced, reaching 17%. Secondly runoff in four seasons has an increase compared to the reference period under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, and the spring runoff rises the most, reaching 24.4%, and the summer, autumn, and winter gains are 7.1%, 16.1%, and 13.5%, respectively. Under global warming of 2.0℃, the rate of increase of runoff in mainstream of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River in the four seasons is larger than under the global warming of 1.5℃. Finally, the maximum daily runoff of different global climate models differs greatly from each other while the average difference is small. Under global warming of 1.5℃ and 2.0℃, the number of days with daily flow exceeding the design flow of the Wangjiaba sluice, increases compared with the reference period, especially under global warming of 2.0℃, which is 22 times more than the reference period and 5.8 times more than under global warming of 1.5℃.

Key words: Global warming of 1.5℃, Global warming of 2.0℃, Global climate model, SWIM hydrological model, Upstream of Huaihe River, Stream flow

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