Differences of decadal oscillations between global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the North Pacific

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.205

Abstract

Abstract:

Based on the simulation results of CESM model under stable warming scenarios of 1.5 and 2℃, the amplitude and period of PDO and NPGO change during pre-industrial, historical and two stable warming periods are analyzed and compared. The results show that during stable warming periods of 1.5 and 2℃, the amplitude of both PDO and NPGO is weaker than that during historical period, and the time scale is decreased as well, which may be due to the acceleration of Rossby wave speed caused by enhancement of ocean layer under global warming scenarios. There are no significant differences in amplitude and time scale of PDO between the two stable warming scenarios, while the amplitude of NPGO is weaker and the period is decreased by about 1 year significantly during stable warming 2℃ compared to stable warming 1.5℃ period. Therefore, the 0.5℃ warming difference has a little impact on the amplitude and period of PDO, while mainly influences the amplitude and period of NPGO.

Key words: Global warming, Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO), North Pacific Gyre Oscillation (NPGO), Rossby wave

FENG Jing, LI Chun, FAN Lei. Differences of decadal oscillations between global warming of 1.5℃ and 2℃ in the North Pacific[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(4): 442-452.

Figures/Tables 9

Fig. 1 Time series of global annual mean surface temperature change relative to preindustrial period

Fig. 2 Spatial distribution of winter SSTA total, decadal and interannual standard deviation in North Pacific

Fig. 3 Total (a), decadal (b), and interannual (c) standard deviation of winter area-average SSTA in North Pacific(Boxplot boundaries are set at the 25th and 75th percentiles)

Fig. 4 Spatial modes of PDO and NPGO in different periods

Fig. 5 Total (a, d), decadal (b, e), and interannual (c, f) standard deviation of time series by regressing SSTA in other periods onto PI period

Fig. 6 Power spectrum of PDO and NPGO in different periods

Fig. 7 Same as Fig. 3, but for standard deviation of winter area-average SSTA in KOE (37?-45?N, 140?-160?E)

Fig. 8 Same as Fig. 6, but for power spectrum of winter SSTA of KOE

Fig. 9 Rossby wave speed and its change ratio at different latitudes in the North Pacific (a, b) and its basin-crossing time (c)

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