关键词: 极端天气和气候事件, 气候变化, 归因, weather and climate extreme, climate change, attribution

Abstract: There is evidence from observations gathered since 1950 of changes in some weather and climate extremes. It is likely that anthropogenic influences have led to increase of extreme daily minimum and maximum temperatures on the global scale. It is likely that there has been an anthropogenic influence on increasing extreme coastal high water due to increase in mean sea level. There is medium confidence that anthropogenic influences have contributed to intensification of extreme precipitation on the global scale. The uncertainties in the historical tropical cyclone records, the incomplete understanding of the physical mechanisms linking tropical cyclone metrics to climate change, and the degree of tropical cyclone variability provide only low confidence for the attribution of any detectable changes in tropical cyclone activity to anthropogenic influences. Attribution of single extreme events to anthropogenic climate change is challenging. Confidence in projecting changes in the direction and magnitude of weather and climate extremes depends on many factors, including the type of extreme, the region and season, the amount and quality of observational data, the level of understanding of the underlying processes, and the reliability of their simulation in models.