气候变化研究进展 ›› 2011, Vol. 7 ›› Issue (6): 412-417.

• 气候变化影响 • 上一篇    下一篇

气候变化影响下林芝地区泥石流发育规律研究

陈宁生1,周海波2,3,胡桂胜3,4   

  1. 1. 中国科学院水利部成都山地灾害与环境研究所
    2. 中国科学院成都山地灾害与环境研究所
    3.
    4. 中国科学院成都山地所
  • 收稿日期:2011-04-06 修回日期:2011-09-21 出版日期:2011-11-30 发布日期:2011-11-30
  • 通讯作者: 陈宁生 E-mail:chennsh@imde.ac.cn
  • 基金资助:
    国家科技部科技支撑计划课题

Development Rules of Debris Flow Under the Influence of Climate Change in Nyingchi

  • Received:2011-04-06 Revised:2011-09-21 Online:2011-11-30 Published:2011-11-30

摘要: 从气候变化出发,介绍藏东南林芝地区泥石流类型、分布及活动特征,确定泥石流形成条件和临界指标,揭示林芝地区泥石流发育规律。温度和降水波动性变化以及不同水热组合影响林芝地区泥石流发育。冰川泥石流在温度升高或降雨增大情况下都有可能被激发。日降雨量<5 mm时,主要为温度激发的冰雪消融型泥石流;日降雨量5~10 mm时,主要为冰川降雨型泥石流;日降雨量>10 mm时,为降雨型泥石流。冰川泥石流在升温条件下发生次数占80%以上,降温条件下约占20%;降雨型泥石流在升温条件下发生次数占60%,降温条件下占40%。从激发泥石流的规模、次数和灾害大小看,高温多雨年代和低温多雨年代都有利于泥石流发生。

关键词: 泥石流, 气候变化, 林芝地区, debris flow, climate change, Nyingchi region

Abstract: Based on the typical debris flows in Nyingchi, this paper presents the basic type, distribution and movement of debris flows, analyzes the initiation condition and critical threshold, and discloses the incubation law of debris flows, and also the impact of temperature and rainfall changes on debris flow initiation. Glaciers debris flow may be inspired during temperature or rainfall increasing. If daily precipitation < 5 mm, melting ice and snow debris is stimulated mainly by temperature; when daily precipitation is 5-10 mm, mainly the glaciers-rainfall debris flow occurs; when daily precipitation >10 mm, rainfall debris flow is in dominate. Glacier debris flows under temperature increasing and decreasing account for 80% and 20%, respectively, while the rainfall debris flows account for 60% and 40%, repectively. Much rainfall are benefit for the initiation of debris flows.

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