关键词: 气候变化, 风险评估, 理论与方法, 不确定性, climate change, risk assessment, theories and methods, uncertainty

Abstract: This paper discusses the theories and methods of climate change risk study for carrying out basis for the research expansion in China. Climate change risks consist of three basic components including sensitivity, exposure and possibility. Uncertainty, future events, damaging and relativity are the major features of climate change risk. Climate change risk research includes two key steps including risk assessment and risk management, the former is the process, and the latter is the ultimate goal which is the basis for actions to address climate change. We also gave out the main framework and methods for climate change risk research. A case study of China誷 floods risk was taken to give an example of climate change risk study. Finally, we pointed out some main aspects of climate change risk research including ensemble-based probabilistic projection, quantitative risk assessment, risk zoning and mapping, risk management and so on.