气候变化研究进展 ›› 2007, Vol. 03 ›› Issue (03): 172-176.

• 研究短论 • 上一篇    下一篇

利用树轮资料重建1751-2005年崆峒山地区夏季温度变化

侯迎 王乃昂 李钢 郑芳   

  1. 兰州大学
  • 收稿日期:2006-09-29 修回日期:2007-05-14 出版日期:2007-05-30 发布日期:2007-05-30
  • 通讯作者: 侯迎

Reconstruction of Summer Average Temperature from Tree-Ring Proxy Data During 1751-2005 in Mt. Kongtong

  

  • Received:2006-09-29 Revised:2007-05-14 Online:2007-05-30 Published:2007-05-30

摘要: 利用采自崆峒山区的66根油松树轮样芯,建立了采样点的标准年表、差值年表和自回归标准化年表。相关分析表明,标准年表与当年夏季均温有显著的相关性,通过建立回归方程,重建了1751-2005年崆峒山地区夏季温度序列。结果表明,自1751年以来,研究区存在3个高温期(1786-1847年、1894-1937年、1987-2004年)和3个低温期(1764-1785年、1852-1893年、1952-1986年)。与Nino3指数、南方涛动指数(SOI)和太阳黑子数等对比表明,崆峒山地区对全球大尺度气候变化及太阳活动都有较好的响应。

关键词: 树轮宽度指数, 夏季均温, 气候变化, 崆峒山

Abstract: Based on the Pinus tabulaeformis tree-ring records from Mt. Kongtong, this paper focused on its environment change history. After laboratory approaches like mounting, polishing, cross-dating and high precision measuring, 66 tree-ring cores are used to establish three types of tree-ring width chronologies: standard chronology (STD), residual chronology (RES), and autoregression standard chronology (ARS). Correlation analysis between the chronologies and meteorological observation data shows that the standard tree-ring index has the best correlation with the average temperature of summer. Regression model is also founded according to the analysis results. Different verification results show that the regression model is stable and reliable. The summer average temperature sequence during the period of 1751-2005 is reconstructed, and it exhibits three cold periods: 1764-1785, 1852-1893, 1952-1986 and three warm periods: 1786-1847, 1894-1937, 1987-2004. Comparisons of the temperature with Nino3 index, SOI index and sunspot number suggest that the study area has good response to global climate change and solar activities.

Key words: tree-ring width index, summer average temperature, climate change, Mt. Kongtong

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