1961—2018年中国主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.102

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2021, Vol. 17 ›› Issue (3): 340-351.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2020.102

1961—2018年中国主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因

舒章康¹^,²^,³(), 张建云¹^,²^,³, 金君良¹^,²^,³(), 王国庆¹^,²^,³, 汪琳¹^,³, 曹民雄¹^,²^,³

1 南京水利科学研究院水文水资源与水利工程科学国家重点实验室,南京 210029
2 长江保护与绿色发展研究院,南京 210098
3 水利部应对气候变化研究中心,南京 210029

收稿日期:2020-05-25 修回日期:2020-07-22 出版日期:2021-05-30 发布日期:2021-06-01
通讯作者: 金君良
作者简介:舒章康,男,硕士研究生, 513162155@qq.com
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划(2017YFC0404401);第二次青藏高原科学考察(2019QZKK0203);国家自然科学基金项目(51779144);国家自然科学基金项目(51679144);国家自然科学基金项目(51879164);中央公益性科研院所基本业务费(Y220011);中央公益性科研院所基本业务费(Y519010)

Evolution characters and causes of the dry season runoff for the major rivers in China during 1961-2018

SHU Zhang-Kang¹^,²^,³(), ZHANG Jian-Yun¹^,²^,³, JIN Jun-Liang¹^,²^,³(), WANG Guo-Qing¹^,²^,³, WANG Lin¹^,³, CAO Min-Xiong¹^,²^,³

1 State Key Laboratory of Hydrology Water Resources and Hydraulic Engineering, Nanjing Hydraulic Research Institute, Nanjing 210029, China
2 Yangtze Institute for Conservation and Development, Nanjing 210098, China
3 Research Center for Climate Change, Ministry of Water Resources, Nanjing 210029, China

Received:2020-05-25 Revised:2020-07-22 Online:2021-05-30 Published:2021-06-01
Contact: JIN Jun-Liang

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

枯季是水旱、水生态和水资源问题的重要时期,枯季径流的变化直接影响着河流生态和流域水资源管理。基于中国网格气象数据和主要江河枯季径流资料,初步分析了1961—2018年中国气候变化趋势和主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因。结果表明,全国枯季平均气温显著上升,北方地区升温较早,南方地区2001—2018年升温明显。全国约84%的地区枯季降水有增加趋势,其中约42.2%的地区增加显著;全国枯季降水呈现西北、东北和东南显著增加,中部变化不显著格局。黄河中游和海河枯季径流下降显著,2001—2018年黄河中游枯季径流较1961—1980年减少了34%,同时期海河流域枯季径流量减少幅度均超过80%;松花江上游和长江流域枯季径流增加显著,2001—2018年松花江上游枯季径流量增加了约67%,长江流域枯季径流量增加了约16%。枯季降水增加主导了松花江上游、辽河、淮河、长江以及珠江枯季径流的增加;气温的显著上升对黄河中游和海河等地枯季径流有显著负向作用;人类活动是松花江中游、黄河和海河枯季径流下降的主要影响因素。尽管全国枯季降水的增加对于缓解流域生态和水资源问题有积极作用,但人类活动和气温显著上升加速了水资源的消耗,加大了流域水资源脆弱性。

关键词: 气候变化, 人类活动, 枯季径流, 演变特征, 成因

Abstract:

The dry season is an important period for drought, water ecology and water resources. The changes of runoff in the dry season affect the river ecology and water resources management directly. Based on grid meteorological data and the dry season runoff data of the major rivers in China, the trend of climate change and the evolution characteristics and causes of dry season runoff for major rivers in China from 1961 to 2018 were analyzed. Results indicated that the average temperature in the dry season rose significantly in the whole country, with the northern region warming up earlier and more significantly, and the southern region warming up significantly during in 2001-2018. About 84% of the regions in China had an upward trend of precipitation in the dry season, and about 42.2% of the regions had a significant increase. The precipitation in the dry season increased significantly in the northwest, northeast and southeast of China, while the change in the central part was not significant. The runoff of the middle reaches of the Yellow River and the Haihe River during the dry season decreased significantly. The dry season runoff of the middle reaches of the Yellow River in 2001-2018 decreased by 34% compared with the baseline of 1961-1980, and the Haihe River decreased by more than 80%. The dry season runoff of the upper reaches of the Songhua River and Yangtze River increased significantly. The dry season runoff of the upper reaches of the Songhua River in 2001-2018 increased by 67% and the Yangtze River basin increased by about 16%. The increase of precipitation in dry season led to the increase of runoff in the upper reaches of the Songhua River, Liao River, Huaihe River, Yangtze River and Pearl River. The significant rise in temperature has a significant negative effect on the dry season runoff in the middle reaches of the Yellow River and Haihe River. Human activities are the main factors affecting the decline of runoff in the middle reaches of the Songhua River, Yellow River and Haihe River during the dry season. Although the increase of dry season precipitation in the whole country has a positive effect on alleviating the ecological and water resource problems, the significant increase in human activities and temperature accelerates the consumption of water resources and increases the vulnerability of water resources.

Key words: Climate change, Human activities, Dry season runoff, Evolution characters, Causes

舒章康, 张建云, 金君良, 王国庆, 汪琳, 曹民雄. 1961—2018年中国主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2021, 17(3): 340-351.

SHU Zhang-Kang, ZHANG Jian-Yun, JIN Jun-Liang, WANG Guo-Qing, WANG Lin, CAO Min-Xiong. Evolution characters and causes of the dry season runoff for the major rivers in China during 1961-2018[J]. Climate Change Research, 2021, 17(3): 340-351.

图/表 10

表1 全国主要江河代表性水文站基本信息

Table 1 Basic information of the representative hydrometric stations on major rivers in China

图1 中国主要江河水系及代表性水文站位置

Fig. 1 Major river system and locations of the representative hydrological stations in China

图2 中国1961—2018年和枯季气温变化趋势及其显著性注：台湾地区无数据,空白表示。显著性水平α=0.05,对应MK临界值为±1.96。

Fig. 2 Trend of the annual and dry season temperature during 1961-2018 in China

图3 代表性水文站1981—2000年和2001—2018年枯季气温较基准期1961—1980年的变化

Fig. 3 Changes in the recorded dry season temperature during 1981-2000 and 2001-2018 relative to the baseline of 1961-1980 for the representative hydrometric stations

图4 同图2,但为降水

Fig. 4 Same as Fig. 2, but for precipitation

图5 代表性水文站1981—2000年和2001—2018年枯季降水较基准期1961—1980年的变化

Fig. 5 Changes in the recorded dry season precipitation during 1981-2000 and 2001-2018 relative to the baseline of 1961?1980 for the representative hydrometric stations

表2 中国七大江河代表性水文站1961—2018年实测年和枯季径流量MK趋势值

Table 2 MK trend values of the recorded annual and dry season runoff from 1961-2018 gauged at the representative hydrometric stations on the 7 major rivers in China

图6 代表性水文站1981—2000年和2001—2018年枯季径流量较基准期1961—1980年的变化

Fig. 6 Changes in the recorded dry season runoff during 1981-2000 and 2001-2018 relative to the baseline of 1961?1980 for the representative hydrometric stations

图7 1961—2018年代表性水文站枯季降雨量-径流深双累积曲线

Fig. 7 Double accumulation curve of rainfall?runoff depth in dry season at representative hydrological stations in 1961-2018

图8 代表性水文站枯季径流与气候要素的响应关系

Fig. 8 The response relationship between the dry season runoff and climatic factors at representative hydrological stations

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1961—2018年中国主要江河枯季径流演变特征与成因

Evolution characters and causes of the dry season runoff for the major rivers in China during 1961-2018

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