气候变化对东部季风区赣江和官厅流域径流的影响

doi:10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.246

气候变化研究进展 ›› 2020, Vol. 16 ›› Issue (6): 679-689.doi: 10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719.2019.246

气候变化对东部季风区赣江和官厅流域径流的影响

赵梦霞¹^,⁴, 苏布达¹^,², 王艳君³, 王安乾¹^,⁴, 姜彤³()

1 中国科学院新疆生态与地理研究所荒漠与绿洲生态国家重点实验室,乌鲁木齐 830011
2 中国气象局国家气候中心,北京 100081
3 南京信息工程大学地理科学学院/灾害风险管理研究院,南京 210044
4 中国科学院大学,北京 100049

收稿日期:2019-10-29 修回日期:2020-01-13 出版日期:2020-11-30 发布日期:2020-12-03
通讯作者: 姜彤
作者简介:赵梦霞,女,硕士研究生
基金资助:
国家重点研发计划项目(2017YFA0603701);自然科学基金项目(41671211);中国气象局气候变化专项“气候变化影响综合评估”(CCSF 201810)

Impacts of climate change on river runoff at the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins in the eastern monsoon region

ZHAO Meng-Xia¹^,⁴, SU Bu-Da¹^,², WANG Yan-Jun³, WANG An-Qian¹^,⁴, JIANG Tong³()

1 State Key Laboratory of Desert and Oasis Ecology, Xinjiang Institute of Ecology and Geography, Chinese Academy of Sciences, Urumqi 830011, China
2 National Climate Centre, China Meteorological Administration, Beijing 100081, China
3 School of Geographical Sciences/Institute for Disaster Risk Management, Nanjing University of Information Science & Technology, Nanjing 210044, China
4 University of Chinese Academy of Sciences, Beijing 100049, China

Received:2019-10-29 Revised:2020-01-13 Online:2020-11-30 Published:2020-12-03
Contact: JIANG Tong

摘要/Abstract

摘要：

选取中国东部季风区南方赣江流域和北方官厅流域,基于逐日气象和水文观测数据率定和验证了HBV水文模型,并以国际耦合模式比较计划第五阶段（CMIP5）中输出要素最多的5个全球气候模式在3种典型浓度路径（RCP2.6、RCP4.5和RCP8.5）下的预估结果驱动HBV模型,预估了气候变化对21世纪两个流域径流的影响。结果表明：(1) 1961—2017年,赣江和官厅流域年平均气温均呈显著上升趋势,升温速率分别为0.17℃/(10 a)和0.28℃/(10 a);同期,赣江流域降水显著增加,官厅流域降水微弱下降。不同RCP情景下,21世纪两个流域均将持续变暖、降水有所增加,北方官厅流域的气温和降水增幅均大于南方赣江流域。(2) 21世纪,官厅流域年、季径流增幅远大于赣江流域。官厅流域年径流在近期（2020—2039年）、中期（2050—2069年）、末期（2080—2099年）均呈增加趋势,RCP8.5情景下增幅最大、RCP4.5最小。赣江流域在RCP4.5下,近期、中期年径流相对基准期略有减少,但在整个21世纪径流呈上升趋势;RCP2.6和RCP8.5下,21世纪中期以后径流增幅下降。(3) 21世纪,东部季风区北部的官厅流域发生洪涝、南方赣江流域发生干旱的可能性增大,不同RCP情景预估得到相同的结论。

关键词: 气候变化, 水文响应, HBV水文模型, 赣江流域, 官厅流域, 预估

Abstract:

The Ganjiang River basin (GJRB) and the Guanting River basin (GTRB) were selected to study the impacts of climate change on river runoff in the eastern monsoon region. HBV hydrological model was calibrated and validated based on observed daily meteorological and discharge data. Five sets of downscaled and bias corrected outputs of GCM from CMIP5 were used to drive HBV model to assess the climate change impacts in the 21st century under three Representative Concentration Pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, RCP8.5). The results indicate that (1) annual mean temperature from 1961 to 2017 showed a significant upward trend with rate of 0.17℃/(10 a) and 0.28℃/(10 a), respectively, in the GJRB and the GTRB. Increase of air temperature in the GTRB was faster than the GJRB. Meanwhile, annual precipitation increased significantly in the GJRB, but a weak decrease was detected in the GTRB. Under 3 RCP, both GJRB and GTRB were projected to be in a warmer and wetter climatic condition in the 21st century, but increase of temperature and precipitation in the GTRB will be more notable than the GJRB. (2) In the 21st century, the increase of annual and seasonal runoff in the GTRB will be greater than that in the GJRB. The annual runoff in the GTRB will show a consistent increase trend in the near term (2020-2039), mid-century (2050-2069) and late century (2080-2099), with the largest increase under RCP8.5 and the smallest under RCP4.5. As for the GJRB, annual runoff for the near term and the mid-century may decrease slightly relative to the baseline (1986-2005), but the runoff trend in the entire 21st century will be positive under RCP4.5. Under RCP2.6 and RCP8.5, increase of runoff will be weakened after the mid-21st century. (3) Flood risk in the GTRB and drought risk in the GJRB will be aggregated in the 21st century.

Key words: Climate change, Hydrological response, HBV model, The Ganjiang River basin, The Guanting River basin, Projection

赵梦霞, 苏布达, 王艳君, 王安乾, 姜彤. 气候变化对东部季风区赣江和官厅流域径流的影响[J]. 气候变化研究进展, 2020, 16(6): 679-689.

ZHAO Meng-Xia, SU Bu-Da, WANG Yan-Jun, WANG An-Qian, JIANG Tong. Impacts of climate change on river runoff at the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins in the eastern monsoon region[J]. Climate Change Research, 2020, 16(6): 679-689.

图/表 8

图1 赣江和官厅流域地理位置及流域主要水文控制站和气候模式格点的分布

Fig. 1 Location of climate model grids and hydrological stations in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins

图2 赣江和官厅流域率定期（1971—1974年）和验证期（1975—1978年）月径流的模拟与实测比较

Fig. 2 Comparison of simulated and observed monthly runoff during calibration period (1971-1974) and validation period (1975-1978) in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins

表1 率定期和验证期HBV水文模型模拟效果的评价

Table 1 Evaluation of performance of HBV model in the calibration and validation periods

图3 赣江和官厅流域多模式集合平均的1986—2005年月平均气温(a)与月降水(b)

Fig. 3 Comparison of monthly mean temperature (a) and monthly precipitation (b) by multi-model ensemble mean and observation for 1986-2005 in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins

图4 不同RCP下2006—2099年赣江和官厅流域年平均气温和年降水量变化（相对于1986—2005年）

Fig. 4 Projected changes of annual mean temperature and annual precipitation during 2006-2099 in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins under different RCP (relative to 1986-2005)

图5 2006—2099年3种RCP下赣江和官厅流域年径流预估（相对于1986—2005年）

Fig. 5 Projection of annual runoff in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins during 2006-2099 under three RCP (relative to 1986-2005)

图6 不同RCP下21世纪近、中、末期赣江和官厅流域月径流变率（相对于1986—2005年）

Fig. 6 Changes of monthly runoff for the near, mid- and late 21st century in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins under different RCP (Relative to 1986-2005)

表2 21世纪近、中、末期赣江和官厅流域丰水极值和枯水极值较基准期的变化（相对于1986—2005年）

Table 2 Percentage change of high flow and low flow for the near, mid- and late 21st century in the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins (relative to 1986-2005)

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气候变化对东部季风区赣江和官厅流域径流的影响

Impacts of climate change on river runoff at the Ganjiang and Guanting River basins in the eastern monsoon region

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